Recent data shows that the average returns for XRP traders have dropped to their lowest point in six years, raising concerns across the cryptocurrency community. On-chain analytics provider Santiment Intelligence reports that XRP has reached levels historically associated with significant undervaluation.
Market bottom signals and MVRV indicator
The 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio—a widely used metric tracking short-term profitability in crypto markets—has plunged to its lowest level since December 2020. Right now, investors who traded XRP over the past month are facing an average loss of 47 percent, with XRP’s price currently recorded at $1.34.
Historically, such deeply negative MVRV readings have clustered at market bottoms, often signaling that many short-term holders are succumbing to selling pressure and exiting the market.
During these periods, the capitulation of so-called “weak hands” can create the foundation for rapid recoveries once market sentiment stabilizes.
Glossary: The MVRV ratio compares an asset’s current market value to the average price at which holders acquired it, helping to indicate whether the asset is overbought or oversold.
Sharp decline after strong rally in XRP
This bearish trend followed robust rallies seen at the end of 2024 and into 2025. At that time, regulatory progress for Ripple, rising institutional interest, and mounting ETF expectations propelled XRP to an all-time high of $3.65.
However, the subsequent volatility caught many late buyers off guard, locking them in at elevated entry points and exposing them to heavy losses. Continued waves of selling have since deepened short-term investors’ losses and amplified overall market fear.
As the average returns of XRP traders drop to a six-year low, the majority of short-term investors posted losses in the latest sell-off. Historical data highlight that periods of extreme fear like this often signal major market bottoms.
Extreme fear and investor sentiment
Santiment’s analysis indicates a sharp deterioration in overall market mood, with online discussions increasingly dominated by fear, uncertainty, doubt, and capitulation. Some analysts suggest that such bleak sentiment often presents new opportunities.
During times when investor sentiment is severely suppressed and MVRV readings reach historic lows, even minor positive developments have been known to spark strong rebounds. Side-lined buyers often show a greater tendency to re-enter during such environments.
Slowdown in whale activity
Looking at larger investor behavior, “whale” transfers have slumped by over 50 percent. While some commentators interpret this as a sign of distrust toward the market, others view it as a natural accumulation phase or a pause ahead of potential new moves.
| Indicator | Latest Value | Previous Peak |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV (30 days) | -47% | Lowest since December 2020 |
| XRP price | $1.34 | $3.65 (all-time high) |
| Whale transfer volume | Down over 50% | Less than half compared to previous months |
While low MVRV numbers don’t guarantee an immediate turnaround, the realized short-term losses suggest that bearish pressure may be largely priced in at this stage.
As losses for investors, key valuation metrics, and overall fear indicators all approach record extremes, XRP appears to have entered a decisive moment.
