XRP traded close to $1.29 on Monday as the number of large holder wallets continued to contract, while exchange balances showed a notable increase. This shift raised concerns among analysts that the month-long sell-off in the digital asset could persist.
Major holders decrease, exchange balances climb
Santiment data indicated that wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP tokens dropped from 351 to 339 over the previous month. This reduction points toward substantial holders, often referred to as whales, cutting their exposure rather than increasing their positions as prices weaken.
XRP has lost around 17% in the past month, even though the total number of addresses holding the token reached an all-time high. This divergence between a growing user base and shrinking whale participation highlights conflicting signals across the network.
Ali Martinez, a cryptocurrency analyst, emphasized that the decrease in large wallets could signal increased selling pressure. In a recent post, he explained that a breakdown below a key support level could accelerate further losses.
Martinez noted that “the decline raises the possibility of growing selling pressure,” and warned that a persistent move below $1.26 may expose XRP to $1.11 and eventually $0.98.
Meanwhile, holdings on centralized exchanges climbed by about 47 million XRP, rising from roughly 11.003 billion to 11.05 billion tokens. Traditionally, an increase in exchange balances may indicate plans to sell, though it could also reflect transfers between custodial accounts or other operational flows.
Despite these developments, the underlying data tracks wallet addresses, not individual investors. A single entity may control multiple wallets, and exits from the whale category could sometimes involve internal transfers rather than outright liquidations.
Spot XRP exchange-traded funds drew only $18.5 million of inflows in four weeks, compared to $75.6 million secured in a single week in September, according to figures compiled by BeInCrypto.
Market at risk if key support fails
Martinez cautioned that $1.26 currently marks the lower limit of a downward price channel in place since August. A brief dip below this level on October 24 did not hold, but analysts argue that a decisive breakdown could pave the way for deeper declines, targeting $1.11 first and then $0.98. The latter would mean a fall of about 22% from current support, not an inevitable crash.
Exchange inflows remain a focus for traders. Data from CryptoQuant revealed that 6.05 billion XRP entered centralized trading platforms in the 30 days preceding October 19, the highest amount in seven months. However, this figure reflects gross inflows and does not equate to net growth in exchange balances.
Additionally, the 90-day moving average of large withdrawals from Binance has fallen to $49.7 million, the lowest since 2019, suggesting decreased appetite among major buyers.
On-chain analyst Darkfost reported that diminishing withdrawal volumes highlight a potential lack of buying momentum in the absence of whale participation.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant is an on-chain analytics platform that provides real-time and historical insights into cryptocurrency flows, exchange balances, and investor activity.
| Metric | Recent Value | Previous Value |
|---|---|---|
| XRP large wallets (10M-100M XRP) | 339 | 351 |
| XRP on exchanges | 11.05 billion | 11.003 billion |
| Monthly net ETF inflow | $18.5 million | $75.6 million (in one week, Sept) |
Record number of wallets and potential for a reversal
Santiment also highlighted that the XRP Ledger logged a record 8.24 million non-empty wallets, with daily network growth reaching 4,772 new addresses, the fifth highest increase since March. While this surge hints at wider interest, wallet growth does not directly translate to more individual investors or immediate demand for XRP tokens.
According to Santiment, if XRP can reclaim a price above $1.40 and the daily creation of new wallets stays above 4,000, a recovery toward $1.50 could follow.
The upcoming Swell conference in New York, hosted by Ripple from October 27 to 29, may provide catalysts for sentiment shifts. Any announcements about new partnerships or institutional adoption could influence investor attitudes, though there are no guarantees that price trends will reverse as a result.
