XRP has remained under the $1.10 mark for several weeks, causing many traders to dismiss the likelihood of a near-term rebound. However, crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto holds a different view, pointing to current price action as a potential precursor to a major upward move, similar to past XRP rallies.
Technical analysis points to historical trend lines
Steph Is Crypto, known for his market insights on social platforms, analyzed the weekly XRP chart and highlighted a significant downward trend line beginning in 2020. He noted that XRP touched this trend line twice in the past four years—first in 2020 and again in 2024. On both occasions, these touches preceded sharp price declines. To explore further, Steph inverted the chart and argued that the previous drops actually marked the onset of major bull markets.
According to Steph, XRP is once again testing this long-standing trend line, trading “around a dollar.” He believes that this price zone mirrors the historical conditions that led to explosive rallies in previous cycles.
The analyst identified that XRP’s repeated interaction with this key technical level has consistently acted as a launchpad for substantial price moves in the past.
The Gaussian channel indicator
Turning to the two-week timeframe, Steph applied the Gaussian channel indicator—a technical tool used by traders to highlight trend momentum. He explained that price movement above the channel indicates robust bullish trends, while periods below the channel have historically aligned with bear market bottoms. Steph provided two prior examples to support his analysis.
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AAPLIn 2017, XRP briefly fell beneath the Gaussian channel just before initiating a bull run. Similarly, in 2020, the asset remained below the channel for 28 days before rallying sharply. Steph noted that XRP has again spent 28 days below the indicator, matching the previous duration observed in 2020.
Mini dictionary: Gaussian channel — A technical indicator composed of moving averages and standard deviations, used to identify overbought or oversold conditions and highlight trend reversals.
| Year | XRP below Gaussian channel (days) | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | a few | Start of bull run |
| 2020 | 28 | Rally reversal |
| 2024 | 28 | Awaiting confirmation |
Gold-denominated chart and summary outlook
Steph added further context by evaluating XRP’s exchange rate against gold. He described that the same 2020 trend line visible in the US dollar chart also appears when valuing XRP in gold. In each historical instance, major XRP bull runs began precisely at this trend line. Steph stated that XRP is once again situated on this technical level.
Bringing together all three charts—the US dollar, the Gaussian channel, and gold-denominated values—Steph argued that the probability of the bear market bottom forming at current levels is high. However, he cautioned that additional declines remain possible, projecting that XRP could fall another 10% to 20% before any major reversal.
Steph advised that market participants should consider entering positions when there is “blood, fear and depression” in the market, rather than during periods of strong momentum returns.
He emphasized that his outlook relies on recurring historical patterns, not on confirmed reversal signals. Steph admitted that further confirmation is needed and that there is no guarantee of immediate price recovery, suggesting traders remain patient and observant before declaring a definitive bottom in XRP.
