XRP has entered an exceptionally rare technical zone, according to the on-chain analytics platform Cryptollica. The asset’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the 43 level. This threshold has occurred only three times in the past 13 years, specifically during February 2017, March 2020, and June 2022.
Rare technical threshold draws attention
Based on Cryptollica’s assessment, the current reading indicates more than just an oversold condition. The platform notes that previous occurrences of this low RSI coincided with major cycle resets in XRP, often followed by sharp price reversals. The scarcity of this signal has put XRP firmly in the spotlight among crypto market participants.
According to Cryptollica, this marks only the fourth time in XRP’s trading history that the monthly RSI has dropped below 43, with each previous instance preceding intense re-pricing periods before a new trend emerged.
The latest drop stems largely from a broader correction across the cryptocurrency market. Data from CoinCodex shows that XRP has lost approximately 43.9% of its value since the start of the year. At the time of reporting, XRP was trading at $1.22.
This pullback has erased much of the momentum built during earlier rallies. Market sentiment has also turned noticeably more cautious as a result.
Ongoing pressure in technical outlook
However, not all technical signals suggest optimism. Market analyst ChartNerd points out that the overall price structure still faces downward pressure. According to the analyst, after the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages crossed on the five-day chart in November 2025, XRP attempted two recoveries, both of which ended in failure.
The first rebound attempt stalled at the 50-day EMA near $2.40 in January, establishing a lower high before prices retreated toward $1.11. The second effort, in May, faltered at the 20-day EMA around $1.54, reinforcing continued bearish momentum.
Glossary: RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and strength of price movements. EMA, or exponential moving average, gives greater weight to recent price data and is widely used to track short-term trend changes.
Buyers and sellers at a critical juncture
The key takeaway from the analysis is that XRP is simultaneously emitting two conflicting signals. On one hand, there is a historically rare RSI reset; on the other, the price chart continues to show lower highs and a fragile structure. This suggests that uncertainty over short-term direction will persist for now.
ChartNerd believes that unless the price can break above key moving averages and disrupt the pattern of lower highs, caution is likely to dominate. Therefore, traders are closely monitoring whether the recent signals indicate a long-term reversal or simply a temporary pause within a deeper correction.
