The price of XRP, the native token of the Ripple payment protocol, has shown signs of renewed strength as it reclaims key support levels, while indicators suggest traders are closely monitoring the $1.12 resistance zone for a possible breakout. Recent technical momentum, a decline in exchange reserves, and steady accumulation by large holders have improved the short-term outlook, though the broader trend remains undetermined.
XRP price holds key support, eyes $1.12 breakout
XRP is currently trading around $1.107 on the Bitstamp exchange. Recent price action reveals that the token successfully regained support between $1.0777 and $1.0700, which includes the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.0761. This area, once strong resistance, is now a critical support zone being tested by bullish traders.
Market analyst DukesMarketAnalysis observed that XRP has rebounded to challenge the $1.12 resistance area, but so far, buyers have not yet managed a decisive move above this point.
A clear breakout above resistance would significantly reinforce bullish sentiment, though even a continued consolidation above $1.070 could support a positive outlook, according to DukesMarketAnalysis.
If XRP manages to push above $1.12 in the near term, trader focus could shift toward the July 4 swing high at $1.1843. An inability to clear the resistance, however, may lead to continued range-bound trading just below this critical level.
Whale accumulation and falling exchange balances boost sentiment
On-chain data adds a bullish undertone to recent XRP market developments. Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, referenced Santiment figures showing that wallets holding large positions in XRP accumulated nearly 70 million XRP last week, raising their combined holdings from roughly 3.71 billion to 3.83 billion XRP between July 11 and July 15.
This surge in accumulation by large holders, often referred to as whales in the cryptocurrency industry, has coincided with decreasing exchange balances on major platforms.
CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform, reported that Binance’s XRP reserves dropped to about 2.61 billion XRP, the lowest level observed since February 2026. Previously, exchange reserves were above 3 billion XRP at the end of 2025.
Generally, lower exchange balances suggest a potential decrease in immediate selling pressure, particularly when coupled with net accumulation by whales.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant is a digital asset market analytics platform that provides data and insights on on-chain activity for cryptocurrencies, including exchange balances and whale movement statistics.
| Metric | Late 2025 | July 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Whale XRP Holdings | 3.71 billion | 3.83 billion |
| Binance XRP Reserves | Over 3 billion | 2.61 billion |
Technical indicators and moving averages send mixed signals
Technical analysis from TradingView currently rates XRP/USD as neutral, reflecting mixed sentiment among traders and investors. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48.57, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, with most oscillator readings also pointing to a balanced outlook. The Average Directional Index (ADX), at 13.29, indicates weak trend strength at this time.
Momentum and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators are beginning to suggest modest bullish momentum, but the Bull Bear Power gauge continues to signal mild selling pressure. DukesMarketAnalysis also noted that RSI has recently climbed above 50, reflecting a short-term improvement, but the Stochastic RSI now sits in overbought territory, hinting that XRP could see further consolidation before any major move.
Short-term moving averages, such as the 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.101 and 10-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.098, generate buy signals with the current price trading above these levels. Conversely, the longer-term 50-, 100-, and 200-period EMAs and SMAs—ranging from approximately $1.14 to $1.46—continue to recommend selling, indicating ongoing resistance on the path to higher prices.
TradingView has identified the classic pivot point at $1.128, just above current market prices. Resistance sits near $1.249, while initial technical support is at $0.918.
Near-term outlook and areas to watch
The immediate outlook for XRP now depends on whether bulls can flip the $1.12 resistance into a support level. The token’s recovery from the $1.070 zone, combined with ongoing whale buying and the drop in major exchange reserves, are contributing factors that traders are watching closely.
Despite these constructive trends, neutral technical signals and longer time-frame moving averages highlight the need for further confirmation before a clear uptrend is established. As such, market participants are expected to monitor the $1.10 to $1.13 range, where a decisive break above $1.12 could see momentum extend toward $1.1843. An unresolved challenge at resistance may keep XRP trading sideways until a stronger catalyst emerges.
