Bitcoin rebounded sharply on Saturday, July 4, climbing above $63,000 and making up for the losses seen at the end of June. The leading cryptocurrency gained 1.4% over the past 24 hours, bringing its weekly increase to 3.6%. Trading volume was relatively muted due to the US Independence Day holiday, but the price action marked Bitcoin’s strongest performance in the past two weeks.
Spotlight on market shifts
Among major digital assets, XRP delivered the standout performance. The token surged 5.3% in the last 24 hours to reach $1.18, pushing its seven-day gain close to 10%. This rally drove XRP’s market capitalization to approximately $73 billion, allowing it to overtake stablecoin USDC and claim the fifth spot among the world’s largest digital currencies.
Ethereum also posted robust gains, jumping 3.2% during the day to roughly $1,793. Its value increased 11.5% for the week. Meanwhile, Solana traded around $82.50 with a weekly gain of 13.2%, and Dogecoin rose 2.6% over the same timeframe.
Macro drivers of the rally
A combination of macroeconomic catalysts contributed to the recent recovery. US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation pressures are receding, while weaker-than-expected June employment data further reinforced the view of easing economic strains. The price surge also forced traders with bearish positions to close out, accelerating the upward momentum.
Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin is approaching a critical resistance level, and a decisive move above $62,800 could propel the price toward $65,000.
According to analytics firm Santiment, Bitcoin has risen 6.1% since June 30, while gold increased 4.8% and the S&P 500 index remained flat. Santiment highlighted that, after a prolonged period of market uncertainty, ETF outflows, and weak investor sentiment, buyers returned to support key price levels. The company is known for its on-chain analytics and sentiment data focused on the crypto industry.
What on-chain metrics reveal
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio dropped to -0.35, its lowest level in 43 months. The last time this indicator reached similar territory was following the FTX collapse in December 2022, when Bitcoin fell below $16,000.
Glossary: The realized profit and loss ratio measures whether coins being transferred on-chain are being sold for a profit or a loss. Negative values indicate a dominance of loss-making sales, which historically have marked local market bottoms.
CryptoQuant emphasized that this metric has signaled cycle lows for Bitcoin in the past. Comparable readings were observed in 2015 and 2019, each time preceding significant upward movements in the price.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, commented that the recent STRC preferred share liquidation, which was triggered by Strategy, has effectively cleared excessive leverage from the market, bringing it closer to a true bottom.
Adam Livingston, an analyst at Swan, pointed out that Bitcoin is trading just 16% above its realized price. Historically, reaching this threshold corresponded to forward returns averaging 41% over six months and 81% over a year. After dropping to $58,190 on June 25, Bitcoin began its latest rebound. Notably, the asset entered the third quarter about 50% below its record peak of $126,080 reached last October.
