XRP is once again in the spotlight as analyst ChartNerd has reiterated his bearish outlook, warning that the digital asset faces renewed risk of sliding back to $1 by the end of 2026. After accurately predicting XRP’s drop below $1 earlier in the year, ChartNerd now points to fresh signals that could indicate another significant retracement is on the horizon.
Warning signs for XRP intensify
XRP is currently priced at $1.27, recording a 1.9% decrease over the past 24 hours. According to ChartNerd, the asset is showing what he describes as “early warning signs that the pathway toward a deeper retrace to $1 is opening.” He indicated that these signals have been on his radar for over two months as market structure has weakened.
The asset is currently sitting at a key local support between $1.25 and $1.30. ChartNerd stated that to shift the wider outlook to bullish, XRP would need a weekly close above $1.34. Barring this, the risk of further declines remains.
ChartNerd highlighted, “We’re seeing early warning signs that the pathway toward a deeper retrace to $1 is opening. This development has been monitored for more than two months. Price remains near local support, but only a weekly close above $1.34 can negate the risk of a deeper retreat.”
Key resistance and downside targets
Looking at technical levels, ChartNerd identifies $1.45 as a crucial resistance to overcome should local support hold. He warns that even a short-term recovery below this threshold and under the 50-week EMA is likely to be temporary, potentially leading to a retest near $1.
ChartNerd’s base scenario assigns the cycle low at approximately $0.98. He also acknowledges that targets of $0.90 and $0.70 are not out of the question, though these are considered less probable. Other analysts have set even lower targets for XRP, suggesting bottoms as deep as $0.65, highlighting a diversity of views within the community.
The analyst maintains that a reclaim of the 50-week EMA is necessary before any substantive recovery in XRP’s price can be validated.
Community perspectives and contrasting views
The response from the wider XRP community has been mixed. Some traders argue that the $1.34 level is unlikely to hold, projecting a weekly close around $1.24. Others point to the recent test of $1.25 and question whether support in this range will remain intact.
A few community members have gone further, calling for deeper declines toward $0.88 or even $0.589. Meanwhile, others urge caution in following bearish predictions too closely, emphasizing possible positive catalysts such as the upcoming Swell conference.
One observer contends that market sentiment is divided: while some expect continued weakness, catalysts like major industry events could quickly shift momentum to the upside.
Broader context: meme tokens and timing
Amid technical scrutiny, the timing and selectivity of investments play a crucial role not only in major assets like XRP but also in the rapidly changing meme token sector. In recent activity tracked by Fomo App, a trader achieved a remarkable result by turning $99 into roughly $370,000 through an early position in the trending “Niu Lai” token. This case underscores the dramatic influence of viral trends and highlights the importance of monitoring both price levels and investor actions. Platforms such as Fomo App have emerged to centralize token discovery and execution, offering features like social feeds, investor rankings, and trade notifications for those seeking to follow meme token dynamics and associated investor activity.
Next moves for XRP
With XRP currently retesting local support in the $1.25-$1.30 zone, the next weekly close is seen as pivotal. A close above $1.34 would challenge the current bearish outlook, while failure to do so keeps ChartNerd’s forecast for a drop toward $1 in play as 2026 draws to a close.
