XRP is displaying a familiar market structure on its weekly chart, according to cryptocurrency analyst EGRAG CRYPTO. The analyst reports that a potentially significant pattern involving the 50-week and 200-week exponential moving averages (EMA) has emerged, reminiscent of two previous cycles that led to substantial price recoveries for the token.
Historical EMA patterns and price cycles
EGRAG CRYPTO has identified a repeating sequence in XRP’s historical price movement, focusing on two previous instances when the 50-week EMA crossed below the 200-week EMA—an event traders call a “death cross.” These occurred between 2019-2020 and 2022-2023. In both cases, price entered defined ranges which the analyst marks as yellow accumulation zones, ultimately leading to strong rallies afterward.
In the current market, a third death cross appears to be forming. EGRAG CRYPTO highlights the importance of the yellow accumulation zones observed in previous cycles, posing a question about whether XRP will maintain its position in the upper part of this range or slip into the lower region before any potential reversal.
EGRAG CRYPTO points to two prior cycles marked by bearish EMA crosses and accumulation ranges, emphasizing, “2019–2020: EMA cross → accumulation → recovery. 2022–2023: EMA cross → accumulation → recovery. Will the third cross follow this pattern?”
The role of the ascending channel
The weekly chart also features a long-term ascending channel, established by two diagonal white lines encompassing the bulk of XRP’s historical price action. According to the analyst, XRP’s broad market direction remains bullish as long as the price remains within this channel. As of October 21, the token continues to hold above the upper accumulation range and within the channel boundaries.
EGRAG CRYPTO stresses that while EMA crosses can be informative, they are lagging indicators. Instead, the analyst assigns greater significance to the macro channel structure, stating that this pattern carries more weight than short-term moving average signals.
Mini dictionary: Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a type of moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points, making it more responsive to recent price changes than a simple moving average (SMA).
Volatility and technical reference points
EGRAG CRYPTO does not interpret the current setup as a definitive bearish sign for XRP. Instead, the analyst expects heightened volatility in both directions, warning of potential price wicks and shakeouts above and below the accumulation range before a clearer trend emerges.
The analysis also considers the 33-week and 111-week EMAs in addition to the primary 50 and 200-week averages. Notably, the 200 EMA, commonly depicted in red on technical charts, now sits considerably higher than its 2017-2019 lows and serves as an important support indicator for the current cycle.
| EMA Level | Role | Recent Cycle Status |
|---|---|---|
| 50-week EMA | Short/mid-term trend reference | Crossing below 200 EMA |
| 200-week EMA | Long-term trend, support | Significantly above previous cycle lows |
| 33-week EMA | Secondary trend reference | Tracked in current analysis |
| 111-week EMA | Secondary trend reference | Tracked in current analysis |
XRP’s current position and analyst’s outlook
At present, XRP trades at $1.34, positioned above the upper section of the yellow accumulation zone and within the established ascending channel. The macro channel structure remains intact, with no breakdown below its lower boundary.
EGRAG CRYPTO, known for technical market insights, concludes that the overall macro structure is more critical than short-term indicator signals. Whether XRP temporarily dips lower within the accumulation zone or holds the high ground, the channel remains the determining factor for the long-term outlook unless it is decisively breached.
The analysis underscores, “The EMA cross is lagging. The macro structure is the key. Volatility will come, but unless the ascending channel breaks, the long-term trajectory remains unchanged.”
