Key on-chain indicators suggest rising confidence among major XRP holders, as the total number of wallets holding at least 1 million XRP has climbed to a 2026 high of 2,147. Data provider Santiment reported this figure reflects an increase of 28 wallets over the past 10 days, including 18 new wallets in the most recent three-day period, even as XRP trades around $1.30. This rise in large-holder accumulation comes amid a period of price consolidation and underscores a divergence between whales and the broader market trend.
Whale accumulation contrasts with price volatility
Santiment’s latest data highlights ongoing accumulation by major wallets, despite XRP’s price having faced notable fluctuations in recent weeks. The uptick in top-tier wallet numbers suggests that some institutional or well-capitalized investors are increasing their exposure rather than offloading tokens through the recent decline.
While this accumulation may reflect growing optimism, on-chain analysts caution that wallet statistics can be affected by transfers between different addresses under the same control. As a result, the increase does not necessarily equate to net fresh buying, though it remains a constructive signal for market sentiment if paired with price support.
The $1.20–$1.25 range emerges as a key reference point. If XRP maintains these levels alongside continued strength in large-holder wallet counts, sentiment for a potential long-term recovery could improve. Conversely, should whale activity taper off and prices fall below this support, the accumulation narrative would weaken.
Mini dictionary: Santiment is a blockchain data analytics platform that monitors on-chain and social data for cryptocurrencies, providing insights into network activity, large-holder behavior, and market sentiment.
Analysts highlight buy signals and potential breakout
Technical analyst Jesse Olson has identified a possible buy signal in XRP’s 12-hour Binance chart, noting price support at a level he described as a “sniper target.” Olson’s analysis marks an attempted breakout from a persistent descending trendline, which, if decisively surpassed, could strengthen recovery momentum.
Olson also points to signs that a longer-term buy signal may emerge on the daily timeframe, indicating a potential shift in trend after recent downside. Even so, he frames the current signal as preliminary and notes that further evidence—a clean break above resistance levels—would be needed to confirm a more robust reversal.
Jesse Olson’s chart suggests that buyers are stepping in at a key support level, with a potential trend shift if XRP can break above its descending resistance. While the immediate move is positive, Olson emphasizes that confirmation is still needed.
Olson operates MarketSniperPro, a trading research service focused on swing trading and identifying significant support and resistance zones within active cryptocurrencies.
Elliott Wave forecasts set sights on $2 target
Further technical analysis from Intuit, an independent crypto analyst, draws on Elliott Wave theory to lay out an optimistic scenario for XRP. The analysis identifies a completed corrective B-wave within XRP’s price structure—lasting as long as its previous A-wave and matching a classic 61.8% Fibonacci retrace—opening the door for a potential move toward $2 over the next month. If the $1.20 level holds as support, the bullish count remains valid.
Backing this view, another technical outlook from @Carolinatcwnl signals the possibility of an emerging Elliott Wave 3 advance. This perspective pinpoints $1.56 as a crucial breakout threshold, with an upward turn in Relative Strength Index (RSI) and confirmation from the Ichimoku Cloud strengthening the case. If XRP sustains gains above $1.56, Fibonacci projections highlight $1.8815 and $2.9032 as subsequent extension targets.
However, analysts caution that these price levels serve as conditional objectives, not guaranteed outcomes. A sustained move below $1.20 would invalidate the bullish setup and prompt a re-evaluation of the technical outlook.
| Resistance / Support | Level (USD) | Technical Indicator |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate support | $1.20–$1.25 | Trend reversal base |
| Key resistance | $1.33–$1.34 | Pivotal breakout zone |
| Major breakout | $1.56 | Elliott Wave/Ichimoku |
| Fibonacci resistance | $1.8815 | 161.8% extension |
| Psychological target | $2.00 | Bullish scenario |
| Invalidation level | $1.20 | Bullish count reversal |
Intuit projects a climb toward $2 if the current Elliott Wave count holds, identifying $1.20 as an important invalidation point for this scenario.
Technical indicators present mixed signals
Despite improving short-term momentum, XRP exhibits a mixed technical profile. At the latest check on Bitstamp, XRP traded at $1.30546, up 2.37% for the day, yet aggregated technical signals remain neutral with nine sell, nine neutral, and eight buy signals in the summary.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48.22, indicating neutral conditions, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 18.06 signals a weak trend. The Stochastic oscillator is also neutral at 58.27, and although the MACD provides a buy reading, it remains below the zero line, reflecting uncertain momentum.
Support is seen from short-term moving averages, with the 10-period and 20-period exponential moving averages at $1.28439 and $1.30177 both generating buy signals. The equivalent simple moving averages, as well as the Volume Weighted Moving Average at $1.29468 and Hull Moving Average at $1.29406, also support the price near the current levels.
By contrast, longer-term moving averages such as the 30-period EMA at $1.31964, the 50-period EMA at $1.33379, and the 200-period EMA at $1.36196 issue sell signals, pointing to ongoing overhead resistance. This suggests that XRP’s bounce has not fully reversed the broader bearish structure, and further upside beyond $1.33–$1.34 is needed to inspire greater confidence among buyers.
Upside potential and risk factors
Near-term, the technical setup for XRP will depend on whether buyers can sustain the price above $1.29–$1.30 and successfully challenge resistance zones at $1.33–$1.34. The pivot at $1.33398 is a critical point, with upside targets set at $1.40197, $1.46997, and $1.55429. Should XRP clear the $1.56 area, technical projections point to $1.8815 and $2 as subsequent objectives.
Downside risks remain if the price falls below $1.20, a zone that aligns with the 200-period moving average and is viewed as a make-or-break support for bullish outlooks. Continued accumulation from large holders and improving momentum signals would support a constructive scenario, but a firm trend reversal is yet to be confirmed.
