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Investors tracking past price performances highly value their potential to repeat in the future. Although historical patterns may repeat in some cases, it is not always guaranteed. We have even seen rigid historical structures break as exceptions. So, what is the popular analyst’s prediction?
Historical Data in Cryptocurrencies
The best example of historical data repetition in cryptocurrencies is from the past few years. In November 2022, while BTC was plummeting, most investors claimed that the previous cycle’s $20,000 ATH level would hold as support. Did this happen? No, Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $15,500, showing us one of the historical overselling examples.
Apart from this, halving events typically led BTC to see new ATHs. However, this did not happen either. In this cycle, BTC set a new all-time high at $73,777 (according to Binance charts) before experiencing the block reward halving. This reminds us why we should be cautious about predictions based on historical performance.
2017 and 2024 Crypto Market
The popular cryptocurrency analyst known as TechDev refers to a chart tracking the market value of cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. Looking at the two-week chart of OTHERS, the analyst expects a parabolic rally in the altcoin market. According to him, we will experience a process similar to 2017.
“Accumulation -> Rise -> Expansion…
Not a single bearish idea I saw passed the backtest done at the start of 2017. Every idea is just a prediction. I suggest not presenting them as facts without backtesting by quickly swiping left.”
According to the analyst’s chart, the 0.382 Fibonacci level on the OTHERS chart has been consistently maintained. The idea of a similar rise scenario to seven years ago is supported by this. To support his bullish prediction on altcoins, TechDev shared the BTCD chart. According to the analyst, the weakening trend in Bitcoin market dominance is motivating for the expectation of a rise in altcoins.
“Two charts of the crypto market.
BTC consolidates with a rise at the previous all-time high.
I see a major altcoin bull run on the horizon.”
