Crypto experts expect the Fed to implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November and December. This outlook is reflected in a slow but steady growth within cryptocurrency markets. Simultaneously, the U.S. economy has outperformed expectations according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts
In September, the Fed made a more substantial cut than anticipated, lowering rates by 50 basis points, thereby marking a bold start to its easing cycle. Economists forecast additional 25 basis point reductions in both November and December. This easing policy promotes a greater influx of capital into cryptocurrency markets by increasing the money supply.
Recent labor market data indicated an increase of 254,000 in Non-Farm Payrolls in September, with the unemployment rate remaining lower than expected. This scenario alleviates recession fears and supports Bitcoin $105,116 and altcoin prices. BlackRock’s CIO Rick Rieder predicts that the Fed will once again lower interest rates by 25 basis points at this month’s FOMC meeting.
Seema Shah, Chief Strategist at Principal Asset Management, commented: “This significant positive surprise (in labor data) removes reasons for a half-point Fed rate cut in November.”
Monetary Policies and Cryptocurrency Markets
Overall, quantitative easing (QE) policies enhance the money supply through debt, benefiting cryptocurrency markets. The Fed’s liquidity injection into the economy reduces bond yields in a controlled inflation environment, directing investors towards more speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.
Samuel Tombs, Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, stated that the strength of the 313,000 job increase in September will likely be revised. David Russell, Head of Global Market Strategies at TradeStation, added that the labor report suggests the economy does not require Fed rate cuts. Even with fewer cuts, stronger earnings and consumer demand could be more favorable for both the stock market and the overall economy in the long run.
Finally, the Fed’s upcoming decision will likely lead to significant volatility in cryptocurrencies amid the U.S. elections. If we witness a cycle of increased liquidity without major shocks, it could herald the days of a bull market.