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As the ceasefire process between Russia and Ukraine concludes, a burgeoning trade war is increasingly affecting global markets. Trump’s recent moves impact inflation and risk markets, particularly cryptocurrencies. This leads to questions about the current predictions for Bitcoin’s price.
Global Trade War
Following the implementation of global tariffs on steel and aluminum, the EU and Canada retaliated. Economists express concerns that Trump’s initiated trade war will ultimately harm economic growth. Recent inflation data offers some short-term hope, indicating that prices have begun to reflect the soon-to-be-implemented tariffs.
However, the latest inflation figures fell short of expectations. The months of March and April are anticipated to reveal clearer impacts of tariffs on inflation. Thus, we may witness higher-than-expected inflation numbers in the upcoming month due to these tariffs.
The current state of tariffs is as follows:
- February 4: 10% tariff on all imports from China.
- March 4: 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico.
- 25% tariff on most items from Canada.
- 10% tariff from February 4, plus an additional 10% tariff on March 4 for China, totaling 20%.
- March 6: Suspension of tariffs on goods covered under the USMCA for Canada and Mexico.
- March 12: A global 25% tax on aluminum and steel.
- April 2: Announcement of additional tariffs on agricultural products and foreign cars worldwide.
The issue is that Trump’s tariffs are raising steel prices globally, thus increasing costs in the domestic market. This adversely affects businesses that rely solely on U.S. steel. Consequently, retaliatory measures limit the export capacity of the U.S. economy, leading to a scenario where the economy may contract, potentially facing greater damage than many other nations.
Future of Cryptocurrencies
Considering the 2008 crisis and the dot-com bubble, a potential global slowdown due to tariffs does not seem less harmful. This scenario poses significant challenges for risk markets, evidenced by severe sell-offs in cryptocurrencies.
Jelle, sharing the chart above, indicates that if Bitcoin 
$108,207 does not reclaim $90,000 soon, weakness may persist. Rager noted;
“After breaking down this week, it is currently testing the 200-Day SMA. The market needs a short-term relief bounce, even if it falls afterward, as we approach the FOMC next week.”
BTC is still showing weakness, and a deeper dip near $69,000 may be plausible. Trump has been announcing new tariffs for weeks and subsequently taking steps back. However, as of April 2, there are indications that there will be no easing ahead. In summary, cryptocurrency investors have faced tough days, and even more challenging times may lie ahead.
