Bitcoin 
$78,121, Ethereum 
$2,302, and the rest of the cryptocurrency market are showing a quiet trend as of Friday morning. Stakeholders are eagerly anticipating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole today. It is expected that the tone of the speech will set the direction for the markets. Participants are predicting a “hawkish” tone. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 74.4% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Based on pricing data provided by CryptoAppsy, Bitcoin has fallen 0.78% in the last 24 hours and is trading at $112,868, while Ethereum has decreased by 0.42% to $4,284.
Powell’s Speech: Anticipations and Market Impact
Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, remarked that the general expectation for Powell’s speech scheduled at 5:00 PM Turkish time today is hawkish due to recent macro data. He noted that a dovish surprise could trigger a rally, whereas a hawkish tone could intensify recent sell-offs in cryptocurrencies and global markets. Liu suggests that if Powell avoids giving any specific signals, market participants might seek clearer indications, potentially extending the consolidation process in the markets.
Powell previously stated that the September Fed interest rate decision would depend on macroeconomic data. Despite President Donald Trump’s pressure to reduce borrowing costs, CNBC reported from July meeting minutes that some FOMC members highlighted persistent inflation, indicating that a rate cut might not be necessary in September.
Currently, the data outlook is quite mixed. July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was lower than expected, while weekly jobless claims saw a slight increase. Conversely, the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July surpassed expectations. Additionally, Fed members continue to expect that the tariffs imposed by Trump will elevate inflation levels.
Potential Downturn for Bitcoin with a Hawkish Powell
BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas cautioned that a hawkish tone from Powell could activate risk aversion, leading to a correction in Bitcoin’s price by up to 30%. However, she emphasized that the current pullback aligns naturally with Bitcoin’s four-year block reward halving cycle.
According to Lucas, it’s customary to witness price softening in September following block halvings, with a recovery in November-December due to tightening supply dynamics. Her analysis calls for a consideration of both short-term price movements and the long-term cyclical outlook.
