Amidst Bitcoin’s ongoing struggle for market share clarity, Benjamin Cowen, the founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, warns of potential value losses for altcoins regardless of the scenario materializing. In contrast, analyst Axel Bitblaze envisions a possible robust surge in the crypto market within the year’s last quarter, painting a more optimistic picture.
Cowen’s Three Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Market Share
In an analysis shared on his social media platform, Cowen emphasizes Bitcoin’s critical juncture around its 20-week simple moving average (SMA) level. In his first scenario, he suggests that should Bitcoin 
$64,421 rise from this level, it might emerge as the market leader, replicating its 2017 role, resulting in a capital shift from altcoins to Bitcoin.
For the second scenario, Cowen theorizes that if Bitcoin fails to maintain its 20-week average and falls to its 50-week average, a sharper decline in altcoins is expected. He reminds readers that similar movements were observed in the third quarter of 2024 and the first quarter, boosting Bitcoin’s market share.
In the third proposed scenario, Cowen suggests that Bitcoin might move sideways around its 20-week average. Here, he predicts a gradual loss in value for altcoins, with the leading cryptocurrency increasing its market share.
Bitblaze: A Weak September, Strong Quarter
Historically, September has been negative for Bitcoin in 8 of the last 12 years. Analyst Axel Bitblaze acknowledges this but highlights a potential shift in the current cycle, pointing to spot Bitcoin ETFs. He notes that ETFs could absorb market supply, alongside strengthening expectations of interest rate cuts and increasing global liquidity supporting prices.
Bitblaze foresees volatility at the beginning of September but predicts significant movements will commence afterward. He also highlights that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the most prosperous periods for Bitcoin.
