In the United States, the prolonged government shutdown crisis is approaching its critical phase. Predictive markets suggest that Congress is expected to reach an agreement within a few days. Polymarket data indicates a 96% probability of the government reopening between November 12 and 15, while Kalshi contracts present a similarly optimistic outlook. The Senate’s recent decision, with a 60 to 40 vote, has set the process in motion.
Senate Moves Forward, Yet Health Insurance Issues Remain Unresolved
A crucial Senate vote saw seven Democratic senators joining Republicans to advance the bill that funds federal agencies. This legislation reverses mass layoffs and includes back pay for public employees and food aid. However, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which reduce premiums for millions of Americans, are set to expire, and the new legislation is silent on this matter.
This issue is currently the most debated topic in Congress. Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized her party for lacking a plan, while some Republicans, under voter pressure, have called for a vote on this issue in December. House Speaker Mike Johnson promised a comprehensive negotiation process concerning the subsidies but did not provide a timetable. The bill is expected to be voted on in the Senate in December, though its approval remains uncertain.
Predictive Markets Anticipate Early Reopening
Investors in Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in the expectation that the government will reopen by November 14. The markets’ confidence hinges on Trump’s signing of the legislation, which would bring the shutdown to an end. However, political tensions persist, with both parties calculating which side will be blamed by voters for the shutdown.
Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, predictive markets suggest voters may penalize both sides. On Polymarket, there’s a 44% chance Republicans will retain the Senate but lose the House of Representatives. The scenario of a “complete victory” for either Democrats or Republicans is evenly split at 27% each. This scenario indicates that the crisis in Washington has not translated into a political gain for either side.
