In the past year, the Bitcoin market has experienced a significant unraveling. Blockchain data reveals that large addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have collectively sold 220,000 coins. This movement marks the sharpest decline observed since the beginning of 2023, indicating a critical phase for price trends. Historical cycles suggest that such sales typically occur before peaks.
Dramatic Decline in Whale Wallets: What Does It Mean?
According to blockchain analysis firm CryptoQuant, wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shown significant balance reductions over the past 12 months. These addresses often correlate with institutional investors and influential market players. CryptoBusy, a cryptocurrency analysis platform, highlighted that this decline mirrors the rapid losses seen during the 2021–2022 period.
Historically, declines in whale balances were observed right before price peaks. During growth phases like 2020-2021 and 2023-2024, the same wallets amassed over 400,000 BTC. The current scenario suggests that major investors are adopting a more cautious approach to holding long-term positions at present price levels.
Conversely, certain indicators imply that the market is not overly heated. The MVRV ratio, comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its average purchase price, currently hovers around 1.6. Historically, this ratio exceeded 4.5 in 2013, 2017, and 2021 before cycle peaks. On-chain analyst CW8900 believes the real rally will begin when the MVRV enters the red zone.
Price Expectations and Short-Term Risks
In the realm of technical analysis, the scenario of a potential pullback is increasingly discussed. Graph analyst Ali Martinez predicts that within the current cycle, the bottom may form in roughly 267 days, with prices hovering between the $38,000–$50,000 band. It is noted that severe corrections in 2018 and 2022 lasted close to a year, resulting in losses exceeding 75% from peaks.
According to the same cycle projections, Bitcoin’s theoretical peak is positioned around $126,000. A 70% pullback from such a level could bring the price down to the $37,500 region. Short-term, if selling pressure intensifies, the $70,000 area is seen as the first stop.
Meanwhile, movements in whale activities on exchanges present a more intricate picture. Major wallets on Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken have recently made net purchases, followed by limited sales that pulled prices down. According to CW8900, this behavior indicates a gradual accumulation strategy from current levels. After testing $92,400 within the week, Bitcoin leveled off around $92,000.
