Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management giant VanEck, has weighed in on the Bitcoin market’s recent moves, suggesting that a major macro-level bottom has now formed for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. He argues that the correction following the 2024 halving event appears to have concluded, highlighting emerging trends that could reshape how investors interpret Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. With $100 billion in assets under management, VanEck is a leading firm catering primarily to institutional clients. According to van Eck, the old notion that Bitcoin’s cycles are determined solely by four-year patterns is no longer adequate, as new institutional dynamics come into play.
Institutional Players and the Shifting Four-Year Cycle
Van Eck’s analysis casts the sharp 2022 crash—and the sideways trading of 2023—in a different light, depicting them as a prolonged accumulation phase mirroring historical Bitcoin trends. Although many observers see Bitcoin’s inability to firmly surpass the $73,000 mark as a bearish sign, van Eck believes the robust support hovering near $60,000 is establishing a solid base for the next cycle.
He also points out that Bitcoin’s recent price behavior is less tied to tech stocks, marking a renewed emphasis on its safe-haven appeal, similar to gold. In line with this, van Eck notes that institutional portfolio managers, sovereign wealth funds, and private wealth managers are not selling at current levels, underlining a fundamental shift in market participation.
The Spot ETF Effect and What the 2024 Halving Means
A major driver of Bitcoin’s changing market dynamics has been the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have kept institutional demand strong and continuous. Unlike the traditional post-halving “supply shock” scenario, these products generate a steady demand, fundamentally altering the balance of the marketplace.
According to VanEck’s latest Bitcoin report, mining revenues have fallen, and the network’s processing power decreased by 4% toward the end of 2024. Yet despite these signs of strain, Bitcoin’s price has not seen a major pullback. Purchases made through ETFs now easily outpace daily coin production, creating market conditions distinct from previous cycles.
The interplay between miner-driven selling pressure and persistent institutional buying is now considered a key factor contributing to ongoing market volatility. This new power struggle is shaping the contours of price movement in a way that breaks with long-held expectations.
Tension Between Institutional Flows and Miner Sales
In the current macroeconomic landscape, miners are increasingly motivated to offload their holdings due to shrinking post-halving profits, exerting downward pressure on prices. Nevertheless, investment titans such as BlackRock and Fidelity have channeled significant capital into Bitcoin ETFs, signaling that institutional buyers remain firmly in the market.
The VanEck report highlights that, despite weakening mining revenues, capital flowing into spot ETFs continues to bolster prices.
This steadfast buying by institutions—even at relatively low market levels—points to a discernible shift in investor behavior. Retail participants tend to sell when volatility ramps up, but ETF-based positions have trended steadily upward, suggesting a durable appetite among large-scale investors.
If miner selling persists while ETF demand tapers, the $60,000 level’s ability to serve as the new base for Bitcoin’s next cycle may face greater scrutiny. For now, however, the prevailing momentum in institutional flows indicates that market support is chiefly underwritten by institutional capital.
