Today, we discussed the potential onset of a new wave of selling in cryptocurrencies. The delayed pricing of BTC is a familiar situation, with rising concerns about tariffs leading to the anticipated market movements. What lies ahead? What should traders expect at this stage?
Black Monday in Cryptocurrencies
This scenario was expected for stock markets. Over the weekend, speculations arose regarding Trump potentially advancing the effective date in negotiations against high tariffs with various countries. However, as time progressed, no resolution materialized. It is worth noting that about 80% of American citizens have negligible stock investments, suggesting that Trump might not be overly concerned about the shock effects.
There are now two paths ahead. Trump may either choose to delay the decision, showcasing our negotiation strength, or we may witness a further decline in risk markets in preparation for retaliatory measures from the European Union and other partners starting Monday.
We should view retaliations as an ongoing cycle. When the EU announces additional taxes, Trump’s tariffs may lose effectiveness, prompting him to retaliate as well. We saw a similar dynamic unfold in the recent stories involving Canada and Mexico.
Massive Bitcoin Transfer
One aspect that has garnered little attention is the ETF outflow on April 4. Approximately $60 million exited the market. Last Thursday, we observed a $40 billion outflow from U.S. markets within a matter of hours. There was no significant exit on the BTC ETF side, and due to the weekend market closure, no outflow occurred. Why was there no exit on Friday? BTC did not experience significant negativity against tariffs, likely leading investors to see potential differentiation here.
If BTC continues on this trajectory into Monday, we could observe historic outflows in the ETF channel, potentially leading the market into a significant downturn by Friday. A closing above $77,000 on Monday is crucial.
The Whale Alert report indicates that $159 million worth of BTC has been transferred to the Kraken exchange. This whale movement coincided with the market drop, triggering significant market reactions. Many experts, including notable figures like Arthur Hayes, consider the upcoming Monday as a risk for BTC. Currently, with BTC remaining above $77,000, losses in altcoins may not exceed 10%, but if panic selling occurs among weary investors, it could precipitate a severe downturn.
