Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has outlined his current stance on cryptocurrency investments, stating his decision to stay on the sidelines of the Bitcoin market until the US Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative monetary approach. BitMEX, known for its derivatives trading platform, has played a significant role in the evolution of crypto leverage markets since its founding in 2014, and Hayes, as a prominent figure in the industry, continues to influence sentiment with his macroeconomic insights.
Fed Policy And Geopolitics Shape Bitcoin Sentiment
During a recent appearance on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast, Hayes indicated that he is refraining from deploying new capital into Bitcoin. He explained his perspective by focusing on the importance of central bank liquidity, pointing out that risk assets like Bitcoin benefit most from expansionary monetary policy rather than from periods of geopolitical instability or armed conflict.
At present, Bitcoin is trading close to $69,926, representing a sharp 45% decrease from its record October high of $126,000. This sustained correction highlights the market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic pressure and global developments. Hayes has expressed that the current environment does not favor a significant allocation to digital assets, primarily due to uncertainty around central bank policy.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes explained while elaborating on his cautious approach regarding fresh investments under current conditions.
Easing Monetary Policy As A Buy Signal
Hayes sees the ongoing US-Iran tensions and the possibility of escalated military engagement as factors that could ultimately force the Federal Reserve to increase money supply in order to finance government operations. He clarified, however, that while geopolitical conflicts themselves are not net positive for the cryptocurrency, central bank money creation could act as a catalyst for the next major upward movement.
“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” Hayes stated, emphasizing his view that monetary stimulus, rather than war, is what drives Bitcoin’s value higher. “Money printing is good for Bitcoin. That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”
He acknowledged the near-term risk that, in the absence of stimulus, both equity and crypto markets could see further downside. Hayes mentioned that a fall below $60,000 is possible if broader financial conditions deteriorate, as risk asset sell-offs tend to have a cascading impact throughout the market.
Bitcoin’s dip to the $60,000 level in February reflected this vulnerability, although a moderate rebound has since taken place. Despite this, Hayes believes the market remains exposed to additional volatility if macroeconomic concerns persist.
Mixed Outlooks Among Market Commentators
While Hayes maintains a cautious stance, contrasting views exist among analysts. Michaël van de Poppe, for example, has underscored recent Nasdaq performance as a positive sign for digital assets, suggesting limited reasons for uncertainty and the potential for price appreciation in the near term.
Van de Poppe has noted that there are “not many arguments left for uncertainty” and sees room for upward movement in both Bitcoin and alternative coins.
Hayes, for his part, continues to forecast a long-term price target of $250,000 for Bitcoin, arguing that eventual shifts in monetary policy will catalyze the next rally. Despite his current reluctance to increase exposure, he does not question Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, instead attributing his pause in activity to macroeconomic signals rather than concerns over the digital asset’s intrinsic value.
As market participants await greater clarity on central bank actions, Hayes’ signals around liquidity and risk management remain influential within the crypto investment community.
