Following the Fed’s latest rate decision and Chair Powell’s remarks, BTC is struggling to hold the $76,000 level. As investors face heightened uncertainty in the last hours of April, analyst DaanCrypto has issued a fresh warning. Drawing attention to historical data, the analyst expects another strong May performance for Ethereum.
May outlook for Ethereum
As the Iran conflict marks its second month, Trump has agreed to extend the ceasefire indefinitely but is preparing to restart stalled negotiations with a “limited” offensive. The US Central Command is on alert, and Iran warned today that any limited attack will meet intense retaliation. These developments are set to make May a volatile month for cryptocurrencies in all respects.
If any agreement is to be reached, observers believe it must happen in May—prolonged oil prices above $100 a barrel are now having a lasting impact on inflation. In addition, Warsh is set to take over as the new Fed Chair and will preside over his first meeting at the end of May. Combined with other global events, analysts expect volatility will remain high in the month ahead.
According to the analyst known as DaanCrypto, historical trends suggest Ether’s price is likely to climb higher in May.
“Looking at historical data, May is by far an outlier in terms of ETH’s average and median returns. One thing is clear for May: it tends to experience especially high volatility in both directions.”
Ether has closed the past three Mays in the green, but whether the streak will continue remains to be seen. What is certain is that May typically brings the year’s highest volatility by percentage for crypto markets.
Fed and the May effect
The Iran war is already starting to reshape the Fed’s roadmap. Powell’s statements yesterday made clear that all 11 committee members are taking the Iran situation very seriously. Compared to early 2026, shifting macro data has rapidly altered expectations for interest rate policy. According to CME FedWatch, rates are likely to remain stable at around 3.50% to 3.75% for most of 2026, with only a slight chance of a hike in early 2027.
Two-year yields are on the rise, December 2026 Fed funds futures are advancing, and the data shows the market is gradually pricing in the consequences of the prolonged Iran conflict.
Analyst Kyle shared his take on these developments:
“Brent crude heading towards $120 is translating directly into inflation expectations, and this makes it harder for the Fed to engineer a smooth transition.”
“Because of this, markets are starting to price in the persistence rather than anticipating rate cuts.”
“There’s another layer ahead… With Powell nearing the end, markets are already eyeing his successor. Should someone like Warsh take over, the bias would likely turn more hawkish. So we’re not just seeing a short-term move in pricing, but rather a shift from ‘cuts are coming’ to ‘maybe they aren’t coming so easily anymore.’”
Whether May proves to be another breakout month for $ETH or brings unexpected reversals, the convergence of geopolitical and monetary factors is setting the stage for a truly pivotal period across crypto markets.
