Bitcoin continued its upward climb this week, marking a slightly higher high while altcoins broadly registered fresh losses. According to technical analyst MooninPapa, a breakout cluster in the four-hour trend broke down after a 6% move, echoing patterns that have underperformed in previous cycles. Despite relative strength index (RSI) improvement, volume failed to confirm the breakout, prompting caution about a potential short-term pullback even though weekly charts show a bullish divergence shaping up.
Ethereum lags behind as BTC extends dominance
Ethereum, often considered Bitcoin’s closest peer, has notably underperformed this cycle. MooninPapa, known for in-depth technical crypto charts and market commentary on social media platform X, has highlighted Ethereum’s continued structural weakness on several occasions. This persistent lag points to a broader market environment that still favors Bitcoin, reinforcing what many now view as “Bitcoin season.”
As Bitcoin’s dominance ratio rises, there is weekend trading room above the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) high, but the TOTAL3 chart—tracking the performance of crypto assets excluding BTC and ETH—has just signaled a third consecutive daily breakdown. MooninPapa notes that this pattern is a bearish warning for altcoins. Even assets attempting to form local bottoms are doing so under significant market pressure.
Both the ETHBTC and POLBTC trading pairs continue to flash clear signs of weakness. These signals indicate that, for now, capital remains reluctant to rotate from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies, further dampening the recovery prospects of the broader altcoin market.
Analyst flags deeper risks for altcoins and traditional finance
MooninPapa’s latest market breakdown includes a detailed analysis of several altcoins. TAO rolled over after confirming a bearish divergence, and ZBCN signaled another warning sign. WLFI was characterized as “a mess” from a technical standpoint. Meanwhile, ZEC now trades in overextended territory and MON, though relatively stronger, appears overheated.
He pointed out that some coins such as M and Pump Fun might still see short-term tactical bounce opportunities, but both require close risk management given current volatility. Among viewer-submitted charts, SUI has yet to establish a convincing bottom, and the SOLBTC pair demonstrates just how severe losses in alt-to-BTC valuations have become. Other underwhelming performers include NEAT, HYPE, LDO, and DOT—all of which continue to appear structurally weak on their charts.
The trend of ongoing altcoin underperformance has been developing for several weeks, with recent data only deepening the losses for many digital assets outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
MooninPapa also assessed the state of traditional finance. Despite last week’s stronger-than-expected close for equities, he highlighted stretched momentum and areas of vulnerability. The dollar index (DXY) is gradually trending down, and major indexes such as ES and NYFANG appear to be topping out following their recent bounce.
Nvidia returned to overbought territory, while the volatility index (VIX) is cooling. The Japanese Nikkei flagged a potentially suspect long trade. Oil, gold, and silver are respectively contending with unfinished gaps and tenuous recovery gains, reflecting the ongoing fragility in traditional finance.
Among individual stocks, Amazon still has an unresolved upside gap target, Intel is one of the current bright spots, and ServiceNow maintains a downward trajectory. In summary, even as Bitcoin shows isolated strength, technical warnings suggest caution for both altcoins and traditional financial markets.
MooninPapa shared: “Altcoins are under increasing pressure, with multiple warning signals building week by week.”
