Easing geopolitical tensions have brought relief to the cryptocurrency markets. While Bitcoin continues to trade above $74,000, it has not yet managed to break through resistance at $76,000. ETF inflows, however, are strengthening, and US stock markets are breaking new records. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is reportedly counting the days until Warsh takes the Federal Reserve chair, as lowering interest rates before the midterms remains a political priority.
US markets and Iran
Positive news regarding a US-Iran ceasefire has dominated headlines this week, with no denials coming from Tehran. A second round of talks is expected to take place once again in Pakistan. It is crucial that, by next Tuesday, the ceasefire is either extended or talks result in a lasting resolution. For these reasons, weekend updates will carry added significance for markets.
The US-granted short-term waiver for Iranian and Russian oil exports is set to expire on April 19. This looming deadline has fueled expectations of either a longer ceasefire or a long-term agreement. Markets have already priced in these prospects, so any reversal—such as failed negotiations—could trigger sharp declines in risk assets and surging oil prices, prompting the US to search for alternative solutions, including renewed waivers.
Oil traded at $96 per barrel on Friday, up 1.35% for the day. While the price’s retreat below $97 offers some relief, the $93 level remains a critical support zone and a breach could signal further downside. According to Fed’s Musalem, with oil hovering around $95, annual US inflation could stabilize at 3%.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 surpassed 7,000 for the first time in its history, and NASDAQ crossed the 24,000 mark, both setting new all-time highs.
Bitcoin and altcoins
For the past two days, Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned positive again. Over $590 million has poured in during this period, reflecting renewed appetite from institutional investors. Ether ETF flows are also in positive territory. The upcoming weekly ETF report on Monday is expected to show one of the strongest inflow patterns in recent history.
Bitcoin has now spent more than 70 consecutive days in a tight trading channel, for the first time maintaining this kind of staying power near its resistance zone. This sustained level has fueled hopes of breaking through $76,000, and, barring any fresh wave of negative headlines, could pave the way for new record highs above $80,000.
Meanwhile, whales have stepped up their accumulation. In the past 30 days, the largest buying wave since 2013 has been recorded, with total purchases exceeding 270,000 BTC. Exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2017, indicating that most buyers are moving their coins into cold storage.
Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, only EDGE has managed to post gains above 20%. Altcoins like CHZ and FIL are also enjoying double-digit gains today.
Since the geopolitical situation has not escalated, an atmosphere of relief prevails in the crypto market, and strong ETF inflows are once again a key driver—industry experts point to this renewed institutional demand as a sign of further upward movement.
