At the time of reporting, Donald Trump was giving remarks at a signing ceremony, emphasizing that the situation in Iran was unfolding favorably for the United States. Meanwhile, BTC found strong buyers above the $81,000 level. As the ceasefire, described by Trump as just a few days long, continues to extend, BTC is taking advantage of the moment with a significant rally, sparking talk among analysts that history may be repeating itself.
Is Bitcoin (BTC) at the bottom?
According to Crypto Rand’s analysis today, a Bitcoin buy signal seen five times previously has once again flashed for the cryptocurrency. BTC, after trading in a range for more than 70 days, has now broken out—suggesting a reversal from recent lows. However, since each rally attempt in recent months has been followed by sharp pullbacks, analysts advise investors to watch for a strong weekly close before acting.
Carl Moon contends that Bitcoin has now reached its bottom and begun its recovery. He points out that the stages outlined in the Wyckoff model align with past market bottoms, highlighting four key phases in the process.
Wyckoff model in focus
The Wyckoff methodology identifies these four main stages: Preliminary Support, marked by the initial slowdown of declines; the Selling Climax, where panic selling hits its peak and prices approach their lowest levels; Automatic Rally, occurring as selling pressure eases and a bounce ensues; and the Spring, a brief dip below support intended to shake out weak hands before a swift rebound.
Moon suggests that Bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase that matches the Wyckoff pattern. If this phase completes, he believes the price could break resistance and start a new upward move.
Cautious optimism as profits roll in
As short-term investor costs are surpassed, some traders are beginning to take profits and exit positions. The key question is whether the price can remain firm through this selling pressure. If profits are taken too aggressively before an uptrend is firmly established, the rally may stall, opening the door for renewed declines.
On-chain analyst Darkfost offered a word of caution in today’s assessment, urging vigilance in light of an uptick in Bitcoin transfers to exchanges by short-term holders (STHs).
“As BTC continues its ascent, STHs are now taking profits. In the last 24 hours, short-term holders have sent around 30,000 BTC in realized gains to exchanges. This figure is gradually approaching the highest levels seen this year, so caution is advised.”
Market observers are closely watching these transfers, as large inflows of BTC into exchanges by short-term holders can signal mounting selling pressure.
Analysts emphasize that persistent inflows at these levels increase the risk of a pullback, especially if overall market sentiment wavers.
However, if Bitcoin holds above the key $81,000 threshold despite profit taking, many believe this could signal a resilient uptrend and further gains ahead.
With uncertainty persisting from geopolitical events, investors are weighing both technical signals and global developments as BTC navigates a critical juncture.
