Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at US-based investment firm VanEck, stated that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next five years. Speaking during an appearance on CNBC, Sigel shared that this is VanEck’s base scenario and emphasized their continued optimism about Bitcoin’s future in the medium to long term.
Long-term forecasts and industry comparisons
VanEck, known for managing multi-billion-dollar global portfolios, has become influential in the digital asset space with its informed market observations. Sigel, who leads the firm’s research division, compared Bitcoin’s adoption to the early days of the video game industry. He argues that, much like gaming, Bitcoin will grow to attract a much broader user base in the years ahead.
“We believe Bitcoin’s value could hit $1 million within a few years. In the gaming sector, interest was first limited to young people, but now people of all ages play games,” Sigel remarked. He also stressed that this forecast is rooted in long-term trends, not short-term volatility.
According to Sigel, VanEck’s benchmark scenario even projects that Bitcoin may rise as high as $2.9 million by 2050. This forecast is based on the conviction that Bitcoin’s growth momentum will persist for decades.
Volatility warnings on the road to higher prices
Despite the promising outlook, Sigel cautioned investors that Bitcoin’s price trajectory is likely to be highly volatile. The absence of a central authority in crypto can make both upward and downward price swings particularly sharp, he noted.
“There are no bailouts in the world of Bitcoin; that means prices will experience dramatic cycles from time to time. The fact that a central bank is now holding Bitcoin in its reserves is a major trend, but it also brings high volatility with it,” Sigel explained.
Sigel also highlighted that Bitcoin currently holds the highest five-year correlation with the Nasdaq index ever recorded. This suggests the latest price rally is closely tied to broader global economic movements.
On short-term price action, Sigel observed that extreme turbulence has not yet surfaced in derivatives markets. He noted that the recent upward movement has largely resulted from the unwinding of short positions, while cautious sentiment still dominates broadly.
Expectations and dissenting views
Predictions of dramatic increases in Bitcoin’s price are not limited to VanEck. Bernstein, Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow, and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey have all forecast major gains in the coming years. ARK Invest, for example, estimates that by 2030, Bitcoin could reach $300,000 in a bearish scenario, $710,000 in a base case, and $1.5 million if growth exceeds expectations.
Some investors and analysts, however, continue to question whether Bitcoin can truly serve as a major store of value, citing legal and economic challenges. Famed investor Ray Dalio has acknowledged Bitcoin’s potential as a store of wealth, though he doubts its ability to become a global reserve asset. Meanwhile, gold proponent Peter Schiff maintains that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and approaches these lofty forecasts with skepticism.
