Bitcoin (BTC) managed to hold strong through the first two days of the week, but today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) reading triggered a noticeable reaction. As cryptocurrencies slipped back into the red, the king of crypto also dropped below the $79,000 mark. So, what are the expectations from the crypto forecaster who has gained a reputation over the past eight months for his accurate predictions?
Anticipated decline in cryptocurrencies
Yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in above expectations, followed by today’s PPI numbers, which also exceeded forecasts significantly. Of greater concern, however, is the abnormal rise in core inflation. As a result, even if the war in Iran were to end, it appears that the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation has been reset by this year’s developments.
For BTC, the key support level was $80,400, which was lost after the release of the PPI data. During the day, BTC fell as low as $78,754. If BTC fails to hold the previous resistance turned support at $78,500, it could attempt to return to its previous channel, targeting $75,600. Should selling intensify, we might even see a move down to $70,500.
If some major positive news comes out of China today, the current downturn could pause in the short term. However, it’s important to remember that the losses seen today are being driven by shifting outlooks for medium and long-term inflation and interest rate policy.
According to FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut in 2026 has almost dropped to zero. Conversely, a rate hike is now considered nearly certain by mid-2027. The chance of a rate increase before the end of the year is hovering around 43%. Back in January, the expectation was for two rate cuts this year, but Israel’s intervention and Trump’s aggressive stance leading to strikes on Iran have upended the balance entirely.
Crypto forecaster’s outlook
Roman Trading has been predicting a BTC bottom around $50,000 since the last quarter of 2025—even when BTC was trading above $110,000. He is considered one of the few analysts whose targets have largely played out. His main thesis relied on a persistent lack of momentum; rally attempts on shrinking volumes failed to convince him. In his latest assessment today, he wrote:
Looking at the BTC weekly chart, I have been pointing out for weeks that this rally has taken shape alongside declining trading volumes, unveiling new signs of a broader downward trend emerging at the macro level.
Back in November 2025, I noted that there would be a rebound around the $74,000 level before the uptrend resumes, followed by a pullback towards late May. Everything is unfolding as planned.
His first major target is $54,200, and unless a surprise emerges, he may well be proven right. Even if unexpected developments occur, their effects are likely to be short-lived because the spike in core inflation is unlikely to reverse immediately, even if the conflict were to end right now.
