Bitcoin is currently trading just below two key on-chain metrics, both positioned near the $77,000 mark in recent weeks. According to Checkonchain data, since the start of April, the cryptocurrency has closely shadowed its “realized price” for 2026, which is now at $76,200.
On-chain metrics shape market direction
The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin that have moved over the past year. Unlike conventional support and resistance levels, this figure offers insight into collective investor cost basis, making it an essential gauge for overall market sentiment.
In February, when the price plummeted to $60,000, the market managed to stabilize near the realized price level set for 2023. This underscores the growing influence of cost-based levels on broader market movements day by day.
Glossary: Realized price shows the average on-chain purchase cost of all cryptocurrency moved during a certain period. It marks the collective entry price of investors and serves as a vital reference for short-term traders and market analysis.
Over the weekend, bitcoin briefly fell to $74,500 before rebounding. Notably, this level matches the 128-day moving average—a threshold closely tracked by technical analysts.
Short-term holders and trading patterns
Currently, the price is situated just below two important metrics: the “true market average” and the “short-term holder cost basis,” both near $77,000. These indicators offer signals on investor sentiment and short-term positioning. Price remaining under these benchmarks has resulted in a continued narrowing of bitcoin’s trading range.
Fresh data from Glassnode reveals that more than 15% of all circulating bitcoin has changed hands in the $74,000 to $83,000 band. Most recent buyers and sellers are concentrated in this zone, which helps explain the current stagnation in bitcoin’s price movement.
Options expiry could shake up the market
Focus is now shifting to the major options expiry scheduled for May 29 at the Deribit exchange, where open interest across all contracts has reached $6.6 billion.
The largest open “call” (buy) option volume is at $80,000, with contracts totaling about $600 million reflecting bullish bets. Conversely, the highest concentration of “put” (sell) options stands at $75,000, with $377 million in open positions there. Market makers and professional traders continue to hold positions betting the price will remain within this tight range.
Analysts believe there is a high likelihood bitcoin stays between $75,000 and $80,000 until options expiry, which is helping limit volatility in the interim.
Recent price consolidation stems from a significant portion of bitcoin’s total supply clustering in this narrow range. The reduced holdings of long-term investors, combined with a wait-and-see approach from new buyers, have intensified the current squeeze. Metrics like the 128-day moving average and realized price continue to act as critical psychological markers for investors.
