Despite a recent retreat in Bitcoin‘s price, technical indicators are showing signs of recovery, drawing attention from market observers. This divergence, last seen in the aftermath of the FTX collapse at Bitcoin’s bottom, now hints at the possibility of an upward reaction while underlining that downside risks have not disappeared entirely.
Rare weekly chart signal emerges
As of Monday, Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) moved above 34. Meanwhile, the price has fallen from $75,770 to about $63,000 in under two weeks. The RSI’s recovery, despite declining prices, is recognized in technical analysis as a positive divergence—a rare signal suggesting a potential shift in underlying momentum.
Mini glossary: The RSI is a technical indicator measuring the speed and strength of price movements. A reading below 30 is typically seen as oversold, while above 70 is considered overbought.
While this pattern may signal that selling pressure is beginning to wane, it does not, in itself, confirm a directional reversal. If validated, this would be only the second time in Bitcoin’s history such a configuration appears on the weekly chart. The first instance followed the FTX collapse in November 2022 and was succeeded by a robust upward rally.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe identifies the 200-week simple moving average as an ideal accumulation range, but cautions that Bitcoin needs to break above the $64,000 to $65,000 band to confirm any sustained upward movement.
$90,000 area returns to spotlight
On the technical front, the first major target is the 50-week simple moving average, currently at $91,755. This line has acted as a strong resistance during past recovery attempts. The current positive divergence has reinvigorated interest in the area above $90,000 as a critical zone to watch.
Bitcoin is also holding near the 200-week simple moving average, which is now around $62,000. Historically, this level marked the bottom of bear markets in 2015, 2018, and 2020. As such, current price action is occurring at a level closely monitored by analysts as long-term support.
Van de Poppe argues that should the price break above the $64,000–$65,000 region, there is potential for a move towards $71,500–$73,000, followed by a possible run at $79,000, where a CME futures gap exists. He points to the area above $90,000 as the next major resistance beyond those milestones.
Downside risks remain in play
However, despite these positive signals, there remains concern over the ongoing breakdown of a pattern on the weekly chart known as a bear flag. This formation typically occurs following a sharp decline, with a brief recovery in a rising channel, and then a renewed move to the downside.
Bitcoin’s dip below this channel is drawing comparisons with the weak price action observed after the breakdown of a symmetrical triangle in 2022. If the pattern persists, technical projections indicate the next measured target could lie below $50,000. A failure to reclaim the lower trendline of the flag as support could further fuel downward pressure in the coming weeks.
