According to over-the-counter trading desk Wintermute, both Bitcoin and Ether are edging toward the lower end of their recent trading ranges. In a market note released Wednesday, Wintermute pointed to last week’s hawkish Federal Reserve signals and a stream of news out of Iran as ongoing pressures on the two largest cryptocurrencies. Wintermute is recognized as one of the leading liquidity providers in the crypto industry.
Short term range tightens in the market
Options market pricing signals expectations of relatively limited movement over the next 24 hours. Wintermute’s one-day straddle indicator projects Bitcoin to trade between $61,242 and $63,563, while Ether’s expected range falls between $1,606 and $1,694. This translates to expected volatility of about 1.9% for Bitcoin and 2.7% for Ether.
Wintermute’s note underscored that Bitcoin and Ether are approaching the lower bounds of their recent trading ranges, with overall market direction shaped by the Fed’s tight policy stance and continuing geopolitical developments.
The company’s assessment suggests that the market’s foundation is weakening. Rising correlations among tokens indicate that movement is now dictated more by overall market trends than by project-specific fundamentals. In addition, as summer approaches, thinning liquidity and a lack of fresh institutional demand in spot Bitcoin ETFs are being noted.
| Asset | Expected 24 hour range | Expected move |
| Bitcoin | $61,242 – $63,563 | 1.9% |
| Ether | $1,606 – $1,694 | 2.7% |
$59,000 emerges as a key level
Wintermute identified $59,000 as the main level to watch should renewed pressure persist. In its note, this area is described both as the bear market low and a pivotal support threshold. If short term downside intensifies, market observers will closely monitor whether prices retest this mark.
The firm characterizes the $59,000 level as the bear market’s low, emphasizing that continued selling would make this a crucial support area.
Three factors to watch for the rest of the week
Wintermute highlights three main factors with the potential to drive prices for the remainder of the week. First, the durability of the US-Iran peace deal now under discussion. Second, the release of the Fed’s closely watched PCE inflation data expected on Thursday. Third, the quarterly options expiry coming up at month’s end.
Mini glossary: PCE refers to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, a key US inflation indicator. The Federal Reserve closely monitors it when making policy decisions tied to inflation trends.
Wintermute’s market note also points out that the quarterly options expiry may amplify price moves as large positions are rolled over or closed. In an environment marked by low liquidity, this effect—when combined with key data releases and geopolitical headlines—could increase volatility heading into the weekend.
