Solana managed to hold above the $60 mark after the latest wave of declines. The cryptocurrency rebounded amid renewed buying interest, reaching around $69.58 on Wednesday. However, the recovery has so far been limited, with the asset remaining below several key moving averages, signaling continued resistance at higher levels.
Cautious signals dominate derivatives data
Short-term indicators from derivatives markets highlight a cautious mood among traders. According to CoinGlass, Solana’s long-to-short ratio dropped to 0.94 on Wednesday. With the ratio falling below 1, short positions have overtaken longs, reflecting increased caution and a bearish investor sentiment in the market.
Mini glossary: The funding rate is a periodic payment between long and short positions in futures markets. When the rate turns negative, it means traders holding short positions are paying those with long positions, usually a sign that bearish expectations are growing.
Earlier this week, Solana’s funding rate slipped into negative territory. On Wednesday, it stood at minus 0.0080%, confirming that short position holders were compensating longs. This pattern often emerges during periods when further price declines are widely anticipated.
Analyst BATMAN noted that Solana’s price is currently squeezed within a broad symmetric wedge pattern, volatility is narrowing, and pressure persists below the 200-day exponential moving average near $74.
Resistance levels and technical indicators limit upside
From a technical perspective, the first significant resistance stands at $74.75. Just above, the 50-day exponential moving average comes in at $76.18. Should Solana attempt a more robust recovery, traders are watching the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $79.27, followed by the 100-day exponential moving average at $83.03.
| Indicator | Level | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Support | $60 | Identified as a key psychological floor |
| Initial resistance | $74.75 | Short-term level to overcome |
| 50-day EMA | $76.18 | Acts as a technical ceiling |
| 100-day EMA | $83.03 | Level for more sustained rebounds |
On the four-hour chart, the MACD indicator suggests an ongoing consolidation phase, while the RSI currently sits at 46, remaining below the neutral 50 level. The overall picture signals a lack of clear bullish momentum for Solana in the near term.
Historic weakness stands out on the monthly chart
A closer look at the monthly timeframe reveals more pronounced weakness. Analyst Ash Crypto highlighted that Solana has posted eight consecutive months of declines—a record losing streak in the cryptocurrency’s trading history. The monthly RSI is also lower than levels seen during the FTX collapse in 2022, pointing to an extremely oversold market.
According to the data, Solana remains down about 80% from its all-time high and has fallen for eight straight months, with the monthly RSI now at one of its most oversold historic levels.
Institutional interest not fully lost
Despite the overwhelmingly bearish signals, not all indicators are negative. Spot Solana ETFs saw net inflows of $137,290 on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue, a prominent digital asset data platform. While the sum is modest, it signals that some institutional interest in Solana persists.
Some market participants now view the $50–$40 range as a potential accumulation zone. In the short term, holding above the $62–$63 band is seen as critical for support. On the upside, immediate targets include $68, $70, and $76 should momentum improve.
