Bitcoin is approaching one of the rare periods in its history, on track to post its third straight negative quarter. This would match patterns observed only in 2014, 2019, and 2022. While the recent pullback has weighed on investor sentiment, several market observers believe the correction could be approaching its final stage.
Historical data offers perspective
Market analyst Henry points out that Bitcoin experienced three consecutive quarterly losses in 2014, 2019, and 2022. After these periods, the cryptocurrency first saw a retreat, but then managed to stage recoveries in subsequent quarters. According to Henry, historical precedents suggest that weak quarterly performances do not necessarily lead to lasting declines.
Henry emphasizes that the only times Bitcoin posted three consecutive quarterly losses—in 2014, 2019, and 2022—it subsequently managed to recover during the quarters that followed.
The analysis also highlights Bitcoin’s robust historical performance in the final quarter of the year. In Q4 2017, Bitcoin surged by 215%, while in the same period in 2020, it gained 168%. Notably, Ethereum is currently on track for its first ever streak of three consecutive quarterly losses since its inception.
Key technical level in focus
Analyst BATMAN notes that Bitcoin is retesting the primary support zone that marked the beginning of its 2023 rally. At the moment, the price is hovering near the lower boundary of its ascending trend channel. Adding to this, the weekly RSI indicator has returned to a historically significant demand area, a technical factor being closely watched by traders.
BATMAN says that if Bitcoin maintains a position above $68,000, a repeat of previous market structure could place levels above $140,000 back in sight. The BTC/USDT weekly chart signals that the long-term upward trend remains intact since the 2022 lows.
BATMAN notes that if Bitcoin holds above $68,000, history suggests that a move beyond $140,000 is possible under similar market conditions.
Following the breakout from the major descending wedge pattern, the price could first retest $100,000, then target $120,000, and potentially reach the $150,000 to $160,000 range.
Mini glossary: RSI is a technical indicator that measures the speed and strength of price movements. A descending wedge is a pattern that, when it breaks upwards, may indicate an imminent recovery.
On-chain metrics point to record supply in loss
Market watcher Whale Factor reports that the supply of Bitcoin currently at a loss has reached an all-time high. More than 10 million BTC were traded at prices below their previous transaction value. The data subsequently showed some limited recovery.
This surge in coins at a loss suggests that many investors who bought near previous peaks remain underwater. Similar supply dynamics were observed during Bitcoin’s sell-offs in 2018, 2020, and 2022, each time followed by a recovery. Analysts believe this pullback could be in line with Bitcoin’s typical cycle of distribution, accumulation, and expansion.
