XRP rose to about $1.11 after gaining 4% within the past 24 hours, tracking a broader recovery across the cryptocurrency market. The recent rally followed a softer-than-expected US inflation report for June, which shifted investor sentiment and fueled renewed optimism among crypto traders.
Market outlook shifts after US inflation report
The latest US inflation data prompted analysts to revise their forecasts for interest rates. The probability of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike has dropped, and several economists now expect the central bank to delay further policy tightening. Many investors are watching whether inflation will continue falling toward the Fed’s 2% target before further adjustments are made.
Major altcoins including Ethereum and Hyperliquid led the market rebound, with traders identifying new opportunities in XRP and Solana if favorable market conditions persist.
Technical analyst Ali Charts noted that XRP has produced a monthly TD Sequential buy signal, a technical indicator many traders use to spot potential reversals in trend direction.
A TD Sequential buy signal is often seen as a bullish indicator, suggesting that the recent pullback could make way for a new upward phase for XRP if key resistance levels are surpassed.
Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, reported that its XRP reserves have declined to about 2.61 billion tokens. According to data analysts at CryptoQuant, this marks the lowest inventory for Binance since February 2026.
Withdrawals from exchanges are commonly interpreted as investors moving coins off trading venues and into self-custody, which may reflect growing accumulation by longer-term holders seeking to reduce selling pressure.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant is an on-chain data analytics platform that tracks exchange reserves, trading activity, and blockchain transactions across the crypto ecosystem.
CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain stated, “If this trend continues alongside improving demand, it could help ease selling pressure over the medium term.”
Mixed signals from on-chain and futures markets
Despite the decline in exchange reserves, Binance’s CVD Confirmation Score for XRP stands at negative 6.93 million, signaling persistent selling pressure since XRP last traded above $2.00 earlier this year.
Futures open interest on XRP hovers 33% below its $2.4 billion high set in July 2025. Lower open interest typically points to reduced participation from speculative traders, which may dampen both upward and downward price swings.
Santiment, an on-chain analytics firm, reported net outflows of $6 million from XRP-linked investment products in the last seven days. Additionally, a spike in daily active wallet addresses earlier in July was short-lived, with activity levels retreating in recent days.
Exchange inflow rates have also slowed, indicating that large holders may be waiting for further price appreciation before taking profits. This presents a possible obstacle to near-term gains, as distribution from bigger wallets could weigh on the price.
| Metric | Current Value | Previous Peak/Reference |
|---|---|---|
| XRP price | $1.11 | $3.65 (all-time high) |
| Binance XRP reserves | 2.61 billion tokens | Lowest since Feb 2026 |
| Futures open interest | 33% below $2.4 billion peak | $2.4 billion (Jul 2025) |
Technical outlook and key levels
XRP’s daily chart displays an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish technical setup. This formation could indicate an upward move of about 20% if the price manages to break through the neckline resistance.
The current resistance zone is concentrated between $1.12 and $1.15, an area where selling pressure repeatedly capped prior rallies. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also crossed above its signal line, hinting at improving momentum for buyers.
If the bulls manage to clear the $1.15 threshold with strong trading volume, potential price targets range from $1.30 to $1.45. However, a close below $1.06 would risk undermining the bullish structure and expose downside toward the $0.95 to $1.00 area.
Despite the recent rally, XRP remains around 70% below its record high of $3.65 reached previously.
