XRP has returned to a critical long-term trendline that has historically triggered major rallies, according to crypto analyst ChartNerd. The analyst posted a long-term chart comparing XRP’s present technical setup to previous market cycles, pointing out strong similarities.
Historical cycle comparison suggests repeated patterns
ChartNerd shared a chart detailing XRP price action from 2014 through recent years. The analysis identifies a rising trendline that connects several major lows across different cycles. Each cycle begins with XRP establishing new support, after which its price revisits the trendline multiple times.
Red circles on the chart indicate the first, second, and third retests of the long-term trendline. Green boxes highlight the sharp upward moves that followed the third contact in earlier cycles. These included rallies of 17x, 6.6x, 1.3x, and as much as 680x from earlier lows. Within the latest pattern, rallies of 10x, 2.3x, and 6.9x have occurred before the current extended period of price consolidation.
“We’ve never been so aligned. The third retest marks GO!” ChartNerd wrote, referring to the recurring structure seen across market cycles.
Mini dictionary: ChartNerd is a cryptocurrency technical analyst known for sharing in-depth market cycle analyses and price charts on social media.
The analysis suggests that each cycle’s key move happened after XRP completed the third retest of this trendline, resulting in outsized gains.
The third retest scenario in 2026
According to ChartNerd, XRP is undergoing a third retest of the same long-term support trendline. Current price action has brought XRP down to retest this major level, which previously acted as a launching point for strong rallies.
Historically, XRP has followed a sequence in each market cycle: the asset forms support, returns to the trendline three times, and then begins a significant upward phase if the cycle repeats. The comparison implies that XRP could be approaching a similar stage as in previous rallies.
| Cycle year | Third retest gain |
|---|---|
| 2017 | 680x |
| Previous cycle | 17x, 6.6x, 1.3x |
| Current cycle (so far) | 10x, 2.3x, 6.9x |
The projected chart illustrates a possible period of significant upside following the latest retest, though it does not provide an explicit price target.
Potential outcomes and price scenarios
One of the most dramatic historical gains on ChartNerd’s chart was the 680x move seen after the third retest in 2017. If XRP repeated a similar rally from its current price near $1.11, it would hypothetically reach $754. This figure serves as a technical reference based on past multiples and is not a forecast for future price action.
Previously, ChartNerd suggested a more conservative long-term target for XRP at $27, which—even without a repeat of historic multiples—would represent a considerable increase from current levels.
After multiple retests of its long-term trendline, XRP has repeatedly delivered strong advances during previous market cycles, according to ChartNerd’s technical analysis.
XRP is the digital asset native to the XRP Ledger, a blockchain designed for fast and low-fee international payments and settlements. XRP’s price behavior and cycles are closely watched by both traders and institutional participants in the cryptocurrency market.
