XRP, the digital asset created by Ripple Labs as a fast, low-cost global payments solution, has reached its most oversold levels on record following a prolonged downturn from its peak. Technical traders and analysts are closely monitoring this development as historic indicators now reflect extreme market conditions for the token.
Oversold Pressures Reach New Highs
Prominent cryptocurrency commentator Ash Crypto has compared XRP’s current price structure to previous cycle lows. Sharing his analysis with followers, Ash Crypto highlighted that XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now deeper in oversold territory than during the 2020 COVID market crash—a period marked globally by heavy selling across risk assets.
As of late July, XRP is trading 72% below its all-time high and has slipped to a two-year low near $1. According to the data, this marks the weakest monthly RSI the asset has experienced since its inception. Ash Crypto illustrated the shift in a chart referencing similar moments from earlier cycles, including the years after the 2017 bull run and the significant declines that followed the 2021 peak.
XRP has fallen to its most oversold condition ever, down 72% from its all-time high to revisit a two-year low near $1. The monthly RSI is now lower than during the 2020 COVID market crash.
Historic Comparison with Prior Lows
Ash Crypto’s analysis covered several market cycles. The chart pinpointed previous corrections where XRP dropped to roughly $0.10 after the 2018 decline and about $0.28 following the 2021 cycle. The most recent downturn places the token just above $1, again accompanied by a sharp decline in the RSI metric.
The Relative Strength Index evaluates both the speed and magnitude of recent price movements, with lower readings typically signaling intense selling pressure or waning momentum. In XRP’s case, each previous cycle’s bottom was accompanied by an equivalent dive in monthly RSI, suggesting a historical pattern where momentum eventually shifts after these conditions.
Mini dictionary: Relative Strength Index (RSI), a technical indicator measuring the speed and change of price movements, often used to identify overbought or oversold market conditions. Values below 30 generally indicate oversold conditions, while those above 70 signal overbought.
| Cycle | RSI Low | Cycle Price Low |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ~44 | $0.10 |
| 2021 | ~44 | $0.28 |
| 2026 | 43.5 | $1.00 |
$1 as Critical Support
The current market structure places $1 as a critical support area for XRP. Analysts suggest that maintaining this level could signal stability and the formation of a new price base. During prior cycles, significant recoveries began after the asset held key support zones coinciding with oversold RSI readings.
If buyers continue to defend the $1 mark, technical traders may watch for a potential trend reversal or gradual recovery. Sustained improvement in the monthly RSI would further support signs of renewed momentum, but confirmation would require evidence of consistent price strength.
Rather than offering a definitive forecast, Ash Crypto invited followers to consider if the recent decline signals a bottom for XRP, highlighting the asset’s deep correction, return to support, and rare oversold indicator.
Market Awaits Confirmation
Despite these notable signals, technical analysts emphasize that a confirmed market bottom depends on price action rather than the RSI alone. Historical cycles show that price consolidation and gradual recovery typically follow these oversold extremes.
Market participants are expected to closely monitor whether XRP can steadily hold above the $1 threshold in the coming weeks. Only a firm defense with rising momentum may point to a shift in market sentiment and potential recovery from the ongoing downtrend.
