XRP surged 18% over the past 24 hours to reach $1.31, posting a weekly gain of 31% as traders debate whether the token is starting a major rally or simply experiencing another brief spike.
XRP breaks multi-year resistance
Technical analyst Steph Is Crypto identified a noteworthy breakout on XRP’s two week chart. He noted that XRP had spent 28 consecutive days beneath the Gaussian channel indicator, mirroring the exact sequence from 2020, which preceded a sudden upward shift in price. The token has tested the same downward trend line that traders have been watching since 2020, and this week, XRP moved above it for the first time since 2024—a relatively rare technical event.
Monica Long, President of Ripple, described the move as a “veritable light switch flip.”
Key trend line holds, but risks persist
Viewed against gold-denominated charts, the trend line dating from 2020 appears significant, with prior bull markets also finding support near this level. Observers point out that previous touches of the trend line served as bottoms. However, Steph Is Crypto warned that XRP could still decline by 10% to 20% before a definitive bottom can be confirmed, adding that the potential rally is not yet assured.
If the current rally continues, XRP needs to hold the $1.00 to $1.05 support zone. Without that stability, traders see the possibility of further downside, especially as XRP approaches strong resistance between $1.20 and $1.35, where moving averages have blocked advances before. Recent readings show XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) above 80, commonly interpreted as an overbought signal in the short term.
| Resistance | Price Levels |
|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance | $1.20–$1.35 |
| Next Major High (2021) | $1.96 |
| Major High (2025) | $3.65 |
Mini dictionary: Gaussian channel indicator, a technical analysis tool that uses statistical averages to identify trends and reversals in asset prices, commonly applied to identify oversold or overbought market conditions.
Institutional activity and on-chain growth
Increased institutional interest has also contributed to the latest breakout. Quarterly disclosures showed higher allocations into spot XRP exchange traded funds, and net inflows remained positive even as overall market sentiment stayed cautious. On-chain activity on the XRP Ledger rose, with growing transaction volumes and more active addresses reported. Ripple, a San Francisco-based blockchain technology company behind XRP, continued to issue its RLUSD stablecoin and formed several new banking partnerships in recent weeks.
The unexpected surge forced short sellers to cover positions, further accelerating XRP’s upward momentum. Many traders now view the outlook for XRP as bullish in the near term, though caution persists as the token grapples with technical resistance and potential downside risks.
ETF flows and regulatory uncertainty
Despite the optimistic technical indicators, some warning signs remain. Weekly inflows into spot XRP ETFs dropped nearly 93% from their recent highs, and total assets under management in these funds have fallen below $1 billion. The legislative environment is also a factor, as the CLARITY Act—designed to establish clearer federal crypto regulations—continues to stall in the Senate, leaving longer-term prospects for XRP less certain.
At present, XRP is trading at $1.31, below its 2021 and 2025 highs of $1.96 and $3.65, respectively. A close above $1.35 would enhance the bullish outlook, but a retreat under $1.05 could undermine the current rally. The sustainability of this move will likely depend on how XRP performs over the coming weeks as traders and institutions reassess risks and opportunities.
