Bitcoin‘s latest price movements point to the start of a new market cycle, as increased institutional investment and strong on-chain signals suggest a shift in the digital asset’s growth trajectory.
Institutional Interest Influences Bitcoin Cycle
Ki Young Ju, founder of the blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, stated that the current bullish phase could deliver Bitcoin price increases of three to five times. However, he expects volatility will be noticeably lower compared to previous cycles marked by rapid surges and steep corrections.
Ju explained that Bitcoin’s expanding market capitalization, coupled with the ongoing influx of institutional investors, is fundamentally changing the asset’s market structure. This new environment is less likely to produce the extreme price swings of previous bull markets, which relied heavily on retail investor demand and periods of illiquidity.
In past cycles, these dynamics enabled Bitcoin to rise sharply, sometimes generating tenfold gains, only to fall by as much as 80% from its highs. Ju does not expect such high volatility in the current environment.
He points out that with broader institutional exposure and a higher market cap, “OG” whales and long-term holders have reduced their selling activities—potentially stabilizing the price during bull runs compared to earlier cycles.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $86,885, reflecting a 1.74% increase in the past 24 hours. The 24-hour trading volume stands at $47.25 billion, while the total market capitalization has reached $1.75 trillion.
On-Chain Metrics Indicate Shifting Dynamics
Ju referenced several on-chain indicators supporting a new Bitcoin cycle, stating that metrics such as the MVRV ratio exceed 1, indicating that the market price is currently above holders’ cost basis.
The MVRV ratio, which measures the market value against realized value, serves as a gauge for whether Bitcoin is trading at a premium or discount relative to the price paid by investors.
Mini dictionary: MVRV ratio, or Market Value to Realized Value ratio, compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization to the value of all coins at the price they were last moved on-chain. An MVRV above 1 suggests current market prices are above holders’ average cost basis and may point to overvalued conditions.
CryptoQuant also tracks realized capitalization—reflecting what investors collectively paid for their holdings—which has increased, supporting the case for growing resilience in the market.
Another notable trend is the declining sell pressure from early adopters and large holders. Ju attributed recent price strength to these long-term investors limiting their distribution, which contrasts with earlier cycles when prolonged selling drove large corrections.
Ju also pointed to long positions established by major futures players around cycle lows, and highlighted CryptoQuant’s 365-day Profit and Loss Index, which indicates the market is at a key turning point.
Impact of Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Participation
The role of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the Bitcoin market is growing. On September 23, analyst Crypto Patel noted that Bitcoin regained its estimated average ETF holders’ cost basis at $81,722. This move placed most ETF investors into profitable territory for the first time in months, signaling renewed confidence among institutional participants.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide institutional investors with regulated exposure to the asset, increasing mainstream adoption and potentially amplifying market stability.
As long as the BTC price stays above the ETF holders’ average entry point, this recovery trend may continue, but analysts warn that price action can still shift quickly in response to changing demand and liquidity.
On-chain improvements, reduced selling from early investors, and ETF participants’ return to gains together highlight a transformation in the current bull cycle, making it more stable compared to previous cycles.
Ju’s forecast for more moderate, 3x–5x gains reflects his view that Bitcoin is advancing under new market conditions that could temper the high volatility of earlier cycles.
Still, the price of Bitcoin ultimately hinges on factors such as global market liquidity, investor sentiment, and changes in positioning. While on-chain analytics inform market structure, they cannot provide absolute forecasts for price direction.
| Previous Cycles | Current Cycle (Estimate) |
|---|---|
| 10x or higher gains, high volatility, sharp corrections (up to 80%) | 3x–5x gains, lower volatility, more stable growth |
The current Bitcoin cycle is therefore defined by robust institutional involvement, improved on-chain indicators, and a new approach to market growth compared to earlier years.
