Options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) are signaling lower expected volatility than the levels recently seen in the underlying asset, according to an analysis by Saxo Bank.
Implied vs. realized volatility
IBIT’s implied volatility, which measures the market’s expectations for future price fluctuations as reflected in options prices, stood at 37.4%. This contrasts with a realized volatility of 45.5% for the fund over the last 20 trading sessions through Tuesday, according to Koen Hoorelbeke, investment and options strategist at Saxo Bank.
Hoorelbeke stated that IBIT’s implied volatility rank, based on Wednesday’s data, was 11.9. This places the metric near the lowest point in its 12-month range, suggesting that options traders foresee relatively stable market conditions in the near term.
“In our view the options market appears to be pricing calmer conditions than the recent past produced,” Hoorelbeke wrote.
Implied volatility and realized volatility are widely used measures in options trading. While implied volatility projects the magnitude of future price swings, realized volatility is calculated from historical price changes.
Mini dictionary: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) that allows institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through traditional stock market mechanisms without directly owning the cryptocurrency.
Price levels and technical outlook
Hoorelbeke noted technical resistance for Bitcoin close to $87,000, the level where its rally halted on September 21. On the downside, he identified support between $76,000 and $77,000.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin traded at $84,751, reflecting a 1.6% increase over the previous 24 hours according to CoinGecko.
| Metric | Current Value | Reference Period |
|---|---|---|
| IBIT Implied Volatility | 37.4% | As of Tuesday |
| IBIT Realized Volatility | 45.5% | Last 20 sessions |
| IBIT Implied Volatility Rank | 11.9 | 12-month range |
| Bitcoin Current Price | $84,751 | Reported day |
| Technical Resistance | $87,000 | Sept. 21 peak |
| Support Levels | $76,000–$77,000 | Identified by Saxo Bank |
This view coincides with a broader slowdown in Bitcoin ETF inflows, which reached $191 million as part of a six-day streak totaling $2.8 billion.
IBIT options are now signaling significantly less volatility than what the fund exhibited during Bitcoin’s recent upswing.
