Crypto market analyst Egrag Crypto has projected a challenging start for XRP in November, followed by the possibility of a strong market rebound during the latter part of the month. Egrag Crypto, known for his technical analysis in the digital asset space, highlighted that the coming week is likely to see significant volatility for XRP based on historical trading patterns.
Analyst divides November performance for XRP
Egrag Crypto outlined a thesis dividing November into two distinct periods: weakness and choppy trading in the first half, and a potential bullish reversal in the second half. He expects price swings, increased volatility, and the chance of another liquidity-driven decline before conditions improve.
Sharing a chart on X (formerly Twitter), the analyst referred to XRP’s historical November performance, with monthly data stretching back to 2013. He emphasized that his anticipated pattern is “playing out so far” and noted that the next seven to eight days could be pivotal for the asset’s direction.
Drawing on XRP’s history, Egrag Crypto described the first 15 days of November as a period of weakness, choppy price activity, and heightened volatility, with a possibility of a final shakeout. In contrast, he is watching for a potential bullish resurgence in the second half of the month.
According to his data, XRP’s average return in November stands at 78.3%, while the median is -9.1%. Major price surges in past Novembers skew this average, including a jump of 489.1% in 2013, 282.9% in 2024, and 179.2% in 2020. Negative returns were also recorded, such as a 14.1% decline in 2025.
| Year | November Return (%) |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 489.1 |
| 2020 | 179.2 |
| 2024 | 282.9 |
| 2025 | -14.1 |
Egrag Crypto has repeatedly stated that while historical trends provide context, they do not guarantee future results. He reminded the XRP community that seasonality is just one factor among many that can influence price movement.
Geopolitical risk could shape XRP performance
The analyst also pointed to geopolitical risks as a variable for XRP’s November trajectory. He mentioned the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as a possible external shock that could impact risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Egrag Crypto suggested that a significant escalation in the region might lead to higher oil prices and spark temporary panic selling across broader markets, including digital assets. He presented a hypothetical scenario of a sharp market downturn lasting about seven days before a potential rebound, while clarifying that this is a cautionary hypothesis rather than a firm forecast.
Mini dictionary: Egrag Crypto is a pseudonymous cryptocurrency market analyst who publishes technical and macroeconomic insights related to digital assets, primarily on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter).
Bullish second half remains the central thesis
Despite potential risks in the near term, Egrag Crypto maintains an optimistic outlook for the latter part of November. His core expectation remains a weak first half followed by a strong recovery, with possible aggressive upward movement as the month concludes.
The analyst reiterated that whether XRP establishes a new local bottom or starts recovering sooner will be decided in the coming week, which he considers critical for short-term price direction.
Egrag Crypto continues to advise caution, stating that historical data and current market conditions offer guidance but cannot determine outcomes with certainty.
As of now, attention in the XRP community remains focused on the evolving market trends in November, as volatility and external risks weigh on short-term sentiment.
