Cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe stated that Bitcoin’s recent sideways movement does not yet indicate a genuine breakout. According to van de Poppe, the broader market outlook remains weighed down by weakness in equity markets and ongoing dependency on Strategy’s STRC preferred shares. He identified the $66,000 threshold as a pivotal level for Bitcoin to regain strong bullish momentum.
Key Level: $66,000 Stands Out for Bitcoin
Van de Poppe emphasized that as long as Bitcoin trades below $66,000, it is too early to speak of sustainable gains. He noted that if BTC drops to new lows and then quickly rebounds to reclaim lost ground, such an event could serve as a strong buy signal for market participants.
Michael van de Poppe believes Bitcoin needs to establish itself above $66,000 for a renewed and lasting rally to take shape.
The analyst also flagged that zones between two main price levels are currently unfavorable for trading. For this week, van de Poppe’s primary target is for Bitcoin to maintain its position above the 200-week moving average, a technical indicator that has previously marked market bottoms in several cycles.
STRC Price Pressure Closely Watched
The risks associated with the performance of STRC preferred shares, which van de Poppe highlighted, were also addressed by another analyst writing under the pseudonym WilcosX. According to WilcosX, STRC falling below $100 is more than just a sign of weakness in preferred shares; it hits directly at Strategy’s mechanism for accumulating Bitcoin. Strategy—formerly known as MicroStrategy—is recognized for holding a significant amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
Mini glossary: Preferred shares typically entitle holders to fixed dividends and differ from common shares. Par value refers to the nominal value set at the time of issuance.
According to WilcosX, the previous system was straightforward: Strategy issued STRC around the $100 level, paid attractive dividends, and used the proceeds to buy BTC—thus fueling both the share and Bitcoin price. However, as the STRC price drops below par value, this cycle is becoming increasingly less efficient.
WilcosX argued that the slip in STRC below $100 directly undermines Strategy’s regular Bitcoin purchase process.
Rising Financing Costs May Slow Bitcoin Acquisitions
WilcosX warned that these developments could have a cascading effect. As capital costs for the company rise, new preferred share issues are less appealing. If Strategy sells STRC below par, it raises less capital but is still obliged to pay dividends based on the original $100 par value. This weakens the efficacy of the preferred share–to–BTC purchase cycle.
| Headline | Previous situation | Current risk |
|---|---|---|
| STRC price | Around $100 | Below $100 |
| Capital-raising efficiency | Stronger | More limited |
| Bitcoin acquisition capacity | Higher | Risk of slowdown |
As a result, the pace of cryptocurrency acquisitions could slow. WilcosX remarked that if STRC loses its role as an effective source of funding, Strategy would be left with fewer straightforward options for accumulating BTC, such as issuing common stock, taking on debt, relying on cash reserves, or even selling limited amounts of Bitcoin.
Some of these risks have already surfaced, according to the analyst. For the first time, Strategy has suspended direct share sales to the market and used part of its Bitcoin holdings to cover dividend payments. While WilcosX does not consider this a complete breakdown of the model, he underlines that the company faces increased vulnerability as the market now requires annual returns above 13% to fund these efforts.
