Anonymous cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave, closely followed by cryptocurrency investors, made an important prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue on its way without experiencing a fake breakout rally similar to 2019 in the current market cycle.
Anonymous cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave stated that the fake rally seen in 2019 in Bitcoin’s price was due to a sudden explosion after spending only months in the “buying zone”. The buying zone mentioned by the analyst is based on his inference using the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC), which aims to filter short-term volatility and noise while determining the highest and lowest levels of Bitcoin’s long-term market cycles.
However, the analyst added that Bitcoin has spent more than a year in the “buying zone” in this cycle and gained ground for a strong bull rally. Dave the Wave based his thesis on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the monthly time frame, which is a momentum indicator that can determine whether the dominant trend in an asset is reversing or not, and said the following:
I remember those who have been following me for a while will remember that I referred to the rise of Bitcoin in 2019 as a “mini balloon rally”. My statement was based on the fact that the price quickly/parabolically moved out of the buying zone according to the LGC model.
Fortunately, this time it is not the case. Even if the prices fall a little in the short term, the weekly MACD (a lagging indicator) shows that we are in a buying zone with risk management for investors.
Looking at the chart shared by Dave the Wave, it is noticeable that he thinks BTC is in the downtrend zone below the falling trend line, but the reversal of this downtrend may be coming soon because the MACD line is approaching the zero line from above. The analyst also mentioned that the LGC model has proven to be a reliable indicator of Bitcoin’s price movement and said the following:
So far, the LGC model, drawn since 2018, has shown its best performance in predicting price range and timing the best time to buy. This statement is unquestionable as it is based on prediction and performance.