Bitcoin is currently generating two distinct technical signals on its longer-term charts that indicate weakness. However, analysts suggest that similar patterns have often appeared during the closing stages of previous bear markets, hinting that the current setup may signal a bottoming phase rather than an imminent sharp decline.
Weekly death cross takes center stage
One of the most discussed topics in the market is Bitcoin’s weekly “death cross” chart pattern. This formation occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average. In technical analysis, such a crossover is generally seen as confirmation of waning momentum and ongoing selling pressure.
To clarify: a death cross is a technical indicator triggered when the shorter-term average drops beneath the longer-term average. While it does not determine direction in isolation, it is widely monitored as evidence of market weakness.
Analyst Jelle points out that this signal in Bitcoin has historically emerged late in bear markets. Previous death cross events on the chart have typically aligned with the final phase of major corrections.
Jelle emphasizes that while the weekly death cross initially appears negative, it has usually taken shape close to the end of bear markets in Bitcoin’s history.
Therefore, while the current crossover confirms that market pressure persists, it is not being interpreted on its own as a clear indicator of a new crash. Should Bitcoin maintain its broader range, it could build a stronger foundation after some continued weakness.
Bottoming zone debate gains momentum
The second notable technical feature from a long-term perspective is the oscillator zone observed on Bitcoin’s monthly macro chart. Analyst James notes that Bitcoin is retesting a historically significant long-term cycle area that, in past years, has coincided with major bottoms.
Charts show that Bitcoin continues to move within its long-term logarithmic growth channel, with prices currently hovering close to the channel’s lower boundary. Simultaneously, the oscillator indicator has also dropped into a region that previously marked major cyclical lows.
James stresses that the current macro setup does not confirm a short-term breakdown, but in the long run, it suggests that Bitcoin is nearer to a bottoming process than to the start of a new major decline.
The similar previous cycles highlighted by James occurred in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2022. In each case, these phases were followed by broader Bitcoin recoveries. This resemblance supports the view that the present scenario could represent a long-term accumulation phase.
Short-term confirmation still lacking
Still, analysts underscore that the current signals do not amount to a short-term confirmation of an uptrend. For a more convincing recovery scenario, Bitcoin would need to reclaim critical moving averages, breach key resistance levels, and begin setting higher lows.
For now, the dominant picture shows that while selling pressure persists, the market might be nearing an exhaustion stage. If Bitcoin can preserve its current range and consolidate its structure, long-term recovery expectations may gain stronger support.
