Analysts expect corporate Bitcoin purchases to pick up toward the end of 2026 and into 2027, especially if the cryptocurrency rallies. However, they anticipate that investors will likely become more selective about which companies gain approval for treasury financing.
Slowdown in corporate Bitcoin buying
Bitwise, an asset management firm focused on crypto, reported a broad slowdown in Bitcoin treasury acquisitions during the third quarter. Head of research Ryan Rasmussen cited company filings that showed Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings grew by just 1,666 BTC in Q3—a significant decrease compared to the 83,901 BTC added in the previous quarter. Other public companies collectively purchased only 5,617 BTC in Q3, down from 45,725 BTC in Q2, according to figures Rasmussen provided.
Rasmussen said he expects corporate Bitcoin buying activity to re-accelerate possibly before the end of this year. Bitfinex head of derivatives Jag Kooner noted that renewed buying could return if treasury companies regain the ability to issue new shares at a premium to the value of their Bitcoin holdings.
During the 2025 treasury boom, companies could raise capital by issuing shares at a premium to their Bitcoin holdings, but as those premiums narrowed, share issuance became less attractive, reducing additional purchases.
According to Kooner, shareholders have witnessed the decline of premiums, and some firms have sold Bitcoin under market pressure. He stated that current investor sentiment now emphasizes funding costs, balance-sheet discipline, and Bitcoin per share.
Established treasuries favored as others exit
Bitwise’s October market report indicated a drop in the number of Bitcoin-holding companies in Q3, largely because smaller firms retreated from their treasury strategies. Rasmussen observed that at least a dozen companies that joined the 2025 treasury surge divested all holdings, primarily to repay debt obligations or return cash to shareholders after their share price premiums disappeared.
Kooner predicted that established firms are poised to attract capital first as the buying cycle resumes, citing their larger scale, superior liquidity, and stronger track records that now appeal to investors.
Rasmussen noted that, beyond Strategy, most of the leading corporate buyers accumulate Bitcoin using their operating cash flow, instead of relying on stock issuance—a slower but more sustainable model.
Kooner also warned that a broad comeback of new treasury-focused companies is unlikely until a strong rally has already developed. He said such a surge in new listings usually signals elevated risk, as it often occurs after premiums have widened late in a rally.
Mini dictionary: Bitwise, an asset manager headquartered in San Francisco, is recognized for offering cryptocurrency index funds and research aimed at institutional investors.
Bitcoin ETFs drive inflows amid uncertain corporate demand
Rasmussen explained that a recovery in Bitcoin does not depend solely on corporate treasury buying. He highlighted that $6.4 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were recorded in Q3, demonstrating another major demand driver.
He added that while corporate purchases are important, demand from ETFs could continue to support the market even without a repeat of the 2025 treasury boom.
Kooner agreed that ETF demand could stabilize prices for a time, but cautioned that some activity stems from short-term basis trades that might unwind rapidly.
He pointed out that without corporate buying, the market relies more heavily on investors who adjust allocations based on shifts in the broader economy.
Recent data from SoSoValue showed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $229 million in net outflows last week, marking the second week of consecutive withdrawals.
