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Cryptocurrency analysts are examining various on-chain metrics and indicators to determine if Bitcoin has reached its peak in the current bull run. One of these analysts, Thomas, recently pointed to Tether’s (USDT) dominance as a predictive tool for Bitcoin’s market peaks. In a recent social media post, Thomas suggested that USDT dominance has been a reliable predictor of Bitcoin’s local peaks over the past six years. According to him, when USDT dominance reaches the bottom of a certain trend line, a local peak for Bitcoin follows.
What is Thomas’s Approach for Bitcoin Based On?
Thomas’s theory is based on the idea that USDT dominance has shown an upward trend over time due to the ongoing distribution of coins and the role of stablecoins in the market. He emphasized that USDT-D, a measure of USDT’s market dominance, is significant as it reflects the market dynamics as investors move in and out of stablecoins.
He argued that this metric can not only predict local peaks but can also be used inversely to predict local bottoms during bear markets. Although USDT-D does not show the exact bottom, Thomas believes it provides a reliable prediction within a reasonable range.
Can Bitcoin Surpass Its Recent Peak?
The analyst’s recent observations suggest that Bitcoin may have already reached a local peak, given that USDT-D has touched the trend line again. When asked by a follower if this means Bitcoin is heading to new lows, Thomas explained that this is not necessarily the case.
Similar to what happened during the last bull run, he noted that the market could still rise and retest the lower end of the USDT-D chart. Thomas remains optimistic that this scenario will occur and that Bitcoin could retest the support line several times in the coming months. This means there is still some upward movement before Bitcoin reaches the peak of its bull run.
Market Cycle Has Not Yet Indicated a Peak
Other analysts share a similar view. For example, Rekt Capital emphasized that the market cycle has not yet peaked and historical trends indicate that the peak will come sometime next year.
Thomas plans to use the USDT-D trend line to inform his long-term trading strategy for Bitcoin and Ethereum. He aims to leverage the predictive power of this metric by buying when USDT dominance is at the top of the trend line and selling when it hits the bottom.
