Amid renewed discussions in the cryptocurrency markets about the “altcoin season,” Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has provided intriguing insights. While many investors still wonder when an altcoin rally will begin, Hayes argues that this season has been ongoing for quite some time. He emphasizes that investors often miss market opportunities because they remain fixated on past cycles.
The Risk of Clinging to Past Cycles
During a podcast, Hayes pointed out that the altcoin season isn’t confined to a specific date or period. According to him, there are always rising altcoins in the market, and those claiming there is no altcoin season share a common trait: the absence of appreciating assets in their portfolios. This perspective suggests a profound shift in how investors perceive the crypto markets.
Arthur Hayes warns against the assumption that previous altcoin cycles will repeat exactly. Expecting previous high-performing projects and narratives to deliver the same results in new cycles can mislead investors. He contends that clinging to past experiences provides psychological comfort for investors, as they believe they know what worked before.
Hayes stresses that making decisions based on past performances poses risks with the constant evolution of the crypto markets. He asserts, “This is a new season, and new things are rising,” highlighting the dangers of relying on past performances as a guide. Investors aiming for success should closely follow new trends, technologies, and diverse use cases.
The Stars of This Cycle and Opposing Views
Hayes identifies Hyperliquid as one of the standout narratives of the current cycle. He illustrates this by noting the project’s swift rise from a few dollars to $60, demonstrating an ongoing altcoin season. Similarly, Solana 
$84‘s resurgence from nearly $7 in 2022 to a peak of $300 this year is seen as part of an “invisible” altcoin season for those unwilling to participate.
Nonetheless, not everyone in the industry shares Hayes’ views. CoinQuant CEO Maen Ftoui offers a different perspective, suggesting that capital will predominantly flow into established cryptocurrencies with ETF approvals or expectations of such support. He anticipates a more selective and regulation-focused altcoin season.
Parallel to these discussions, Bitfinex analysts have also expressed their views. They believe that without the approval of ETFs encompassing assets beyond Bitcoin 
$79,981 and Ethereum 
$2,351, a broad and robust altcoin rally remains unlikely, indicating that market uncertainty could persist for a while longer.
Recently, a similar debate emerged with Bitwise executives predicting 2026 as the “true year of the bull for crypto.” The Bitwise team believes the real surge will occur in the coming years due to institutional adoption and the introduction of new financial products.
