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BitMEX’s co-founder Arthur Hayes recently shared his comprehensive assessment of the markets. He addresses the current situation both in macroeconomic terms and specifically in crypto. Investors are known to be interested in Hayes’s comments due to his broad perspective. So, what did Arthur say?
Arthur Hayes’s Crypto Predictions
In his latest article, Hayes discussed interest rate cuts and the future of the markets. He examined the relationship between the Japanese Yen and the dollar in terms of interest rate cuts, seeing a risk of turbulence. This situation could push central banks to expand their reserves. Balance sheet expansion would mean more liquidity for the markets.
Hayes mentioned that investors are following a yen carry trade strategy by borrowing in Yen due to lower interest rates rather than seeking higher returns. He expects a resolution here as the difference in interest rates narrows, making this strategy less attractive and potentially starting a new process.
“Fiat liquidity conditions couldn’t be more favorable as we enter the late stages of the third quarter. As crypto hodlers, we have tailwinds supporting us.”
When Will Crypto Rise?
In his August 12 assessment, Hayes outlined a clear roadmap. This is something many analysts have been saying for months. BTC has been stuck in a narrow range, and historically, it is unusual for it to remain stuck in a bull market for so long. According to him, we won’t see the start of an altcoin bull season until BTC sustains above 70,000 and ETH above 4,000 dollars.
“A Bitcoin and Ether rally inspired by dollar liquidity merging towards the end of the year will lay a strong foundation for the return of an enticing shitcoin party.”
This will bring back the short-term rallies exceeding 400% that we are accustomed to in altcoin bull markets. By the end of the year, Hayes says that with a net issuance of 301 billion dollars in T-bonds, BTC will be set to strengthen again, with the next stop being 100,000 dollars.
Historical data does not promise good returns for the third quarters. September is also unlikely to be very exciting, but as we approach the end of the month, the motivation brought by optimism for the last quarter could start an impressive rise phase.
