Cryptocurrencies entered a new phase approximately 24 hours ago. The effects will be understood over time. Understanding the future requires a thorough reading of the past and present. By analyzing Biden, Trump, Cryptocurrency, and November 5, 2024, you can prepare for the expected bull season by the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Biden and Cryptocurrency Softening
Here’s a small and seemingly unrelated detail to remember. The negative premium for ETHE was around -11% at the time of writing. This figure had exceeded -55% around July last year. Similar to GBTC sales, we might see strong net outflows following the ETH ETF approval. Returning to our main topic, the Biden administration’s stance on cryptocurrency is softening.
- The first significant development was the rumors of ETH ETF approval that emerged on Monday. After the recent crackdown on leading institutions related to Ethereum, such a scenario was unimaginable. What happened after the Wells notices in April that made the SEC do a 180-degree turn? We will address this in the second part.
- The second key development was the bipartisan bill named the 2023 American Blockchain Utilization Act, which was passed by the House of Representatives with a vote of 334 to 79 last week. This was crucial for enhancing the U.S.’s competitiveness in the crypto and blockchain space. Before the Senate’s vote on the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), this was significant crypto support.
- The third major event was the Democrats’ support for FIT21. This continued the bipartisan support in the House and Senate to repeal the SEC’s controversial Staff Accounting Bulletin 121.
The breaking point will be whether Biden vetoes the measure against the SEC as promised. If Biden does not use his veto power on top of all this, it will be a clear short-term price catalyst for crypto.
November 5, 2024
Biden, Cryptocurrency, and Trump converge at this point. This year’s U.S. elections are crucial because Trump has openly appealed to crypto voters for the first time. His statements, urging people to vote for him to end the pressure, likely influenced the majority of young, crypto-friendly voters.
If Biden also makes a 180-degree turn on his veto decision following the SEC’s sudden reversal in April, we might see statements like “No, I am more crypto-friendly, vote for me, not Trump.” In a scenario where the process moves in this direction, we could see days by November where the legal and political crypto pressure in the U.S. turns into support, ETFs see larger inflows, and Bitcoin possibly reaches six-figure levels. The breaking point, as mentioned above, will be the SEC’s ETF approval and Biden’s decision not to use his veto power.
