Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced mixed market signals over the past week, with onchain data revealing a rise in buying activity and ETF inflows, while broader sentiment remains subdued. The cryptocurrency posted a notable net buying day on July 15, as both spot and futures cumulative volume delta showed a $925 million net increase in Bitcoin purchases. This substantial orderbook activity absorbed selling pressure that emerged after the most recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, maintaining market stability in contrast to a sharper pullback in open interest and price that might have been expected.
ETF inflows and leveraged positions
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds added $107.7 million in net inflows on July 15, following $181 million in inflows the day before. This marks the second consecutive day of ETF investment gains, indicating ongoing institutional interest even as overall investor sentiment remains cautious.
Throughout most of the past week, funding rates measured between 0.10% and 0.22%, but dipped sharply to 0.048%. This decline, combined with a 3.4% drop in open interest from Tuesday’s peak, suggests that leveraged traders have started to unwind their positions. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price dropped only about 1.5% during the same interval, indicating that the market has absorbed these moves without major downside volatility. Many traders appear to be reducing exposure after Bitcoin touched local range highs between $65,000 and $66,000.
| Date | Net ETF Inflows | Open Interest Change | Funding Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 14 | $181 million | – | 0.10%-0.22% |
| July 15 | $107.7 million | -3.4% from peak | 0.048% |
Sentiment and risk factors weigh on market
Despite the uptrend in spot, futures, and ETF data, broader market sentiment has not followed suit. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 26, indicating persistent fear even after Bitcoin rebounded around 4.4% from its recent low of $62,100. Some traders interpret this as a potentially positive setup, noting that when flows increase during periods of fear, upcoming price rallies may be more sustainable as optimism has not yet been fully priced in.
Positive flows holding up while sentiment stays low have historically provided a more resilient backdrop compared to surges that are already anticipated by the market.
However, geopolitical and macroeconomic risks continue to cloud the outlook. Tensions escalated with the resumption of US military activity in Iran, and oil prices climbed above $85 per barrel. Additionally, projections for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by September 2026 remain above 44%, adding to the uncertainty for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Some analysts caution that, while recent net buying is significant, it alone does not signify a confirmed shift in trend. Despite two straight days of ETF inflows, spot ETF flows are still negative for the year, and the market faces clusters of potential liquidations with long positions lying about 1.5% below Bitcoin’s current price at $63,200.
What next for Bitcoin?
Market indicators show that funding rates are cooling toward neutral, and leverage is gradually being reduced. The cluster of long liquidations sitting just below the current price could become a focal point if selling pressure returns. For now, traders are closely watching for further signs that institutional inflows, steadier funding, or an improved macro environment could lead to a more decisive upward move.
