Social media phenomenon and crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) is about to enter a correction phase similar to previous market cycles after its volatile movement around the $40,000 level.
Bitcoin Halving Expectation
Expert crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated in his YouTube commentary that historically, Bitcoin has undergone a significant market correction as it approaches its halving, which is expected in April 2024.
Every four years, Bitcoin experiences a halving event where miners’ rewards are cut in half. The next halving is anticipated to occur in April. Moreover, according to Benjamin Cowen, the correction before the halving often involves Bitcoin testing its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), as he explained:
We tested the 100-week SMA during this time frame, either at the end of the pre-halving year or in the early stages of the halving year. We did this around November 2011, just before the halving cycle. Two cycles ago, in January and February of the halving year 2016, we tested the 100-week SMA. And in the last cycle, we tested it in March 2020. You might say we only tested it because of the pandemic, but this happened in every cycle. We even fell below it. Forget testing. We went to the 100-week SMA and then started to fall even further by 45% from the previous cycle… Guess where that would put you today? A 45% drop below the 100-week SMA of $28,176 would take you back to the previous low level of $15,355.
Expert Opinion on BTC
In conclusion, Benjamin Cowen, by comparing with past cycles, estimates that this pre-halving correction scenario could potentially bring Bitcoin down by 45% below the 100-week SMA. The analyst also evaluated this situation by comparing it with past cycles and noting that the 100-week SMA is at the level of $28,176.
