Bitcoin hovered near $87,200 on Wednesday, following statements from US President Donald Trump that American officials had a “very good meeting” with Iranian representatives in New York. Data from CoinGecko showed Bitcoin gained approximately 14% over the past week, rebounding sharply from the $75,600 level seen on September 15. The leading cryptocurrency’s market capitalization now stands at about $1.75 trillion.
US-Iran Talks and Market Reaction
President Trump stated that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner conducted a three-hour negotiation session with Iranian officials at the United Nations General Assembly, which included Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Trump described these discussions as “very productive” and suggested that another round would follow soon.
Iranian state media reported that the Iranian delegation reiterated their conditions, including lifting the US naval blockade and unfreezing Iranian assets. Iran reportedly indicated its willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US initiated steps to de-escalate tensions.
Covering the summit, journalist Elizabeth Hagedorn shared on X that Jordan’s King Abdullah referred to his meeting with President Trump regarding the regional situation as “very good.” According to Hagedorn, King Abdullah expressed cautious optimism by crossing his fingers when asked about a possible Iran deal.
Amid these developments, oil prices fell for a sixth consecutive day, settling at $89 per barrel. Trump has suggested that a definitive decision around a new Iran agreement may not take place before the November midterm elections.
| Asset | Recent Price | 1-Week Change | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $87,200 | +14% | $1.75 trillion |
| Oil | $89 per barrel | Down 6 straight days | — |
Analyst Outlook: Smaller Bull Cycles Expected
Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant—a blockchain analytics firm based in South Korea—shared that he anticipates Bitcoin’s current bull cycle to be less intense than previous phases. Ju expects potential gains in the range of three to five times, rather than the tenfold rallies commonly observed in earlier years.
He noted on X, “I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.” He did not specify a price or exact starting date for these calculations.
Ju indicated that as Bitcoin’s global adoption has expanded and institutional activity has grown, the market has matured, reducing the likelihood of both extreme gains and deep losses seen in earlier cycles.
Ju highlighted that the MVRV ratio, which measures Bitcoin’s market value against holders’ average cost basis, has remained above one throughout the current cycle—even during substantial corrections. He also emphasized that older large holders, or “whales,” have mostly stopped selling, while new entrants continue to accumulate Bitcoin at recent price lows.
He further commented that “giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash.” Previously, Bitcoin reached an all-time high just under $126,000 in October 2025 before retreating to around $60,000 this year.
Mini dictionary: MVRV ratio, or Market Value to Realized Value, is a blockchain metric comparing a cryptocurrency’s market value to the average acquisition price among holders. A ratio above one indicates most holders are in profit.
ETF Inflows, Futures Positioning, and Market Activity
Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $433 million in new inflows on September 18 following recent outflows. Tim Sun, a researcher at digital asset platform HashKey, stated that ETF flows often follow rather than lead major price movements.
Bitcoin futures open interest increased over 1% in 24 hours to $61.40 billion, as reported by crypto analytics provider Coinglass. Open interest climbed over 5% on CME and more than 6% on Hyperliquid, while Binance saw a decline of nearly 2%.
Amid this activity, trading volumes have decreased by 32% as traders anticipate statements from Federal Reserve officials later this week. While Bitcoin dominated, other major cryptocurrencies including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Zcash also recorded gains during the period.
Bitcoin remains trading around the $87,200 mark, with an intraday high of $87,251. Separately, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled for meetings at the UN later today.
