Following the opening of the US market, Bitcoin’s value turned downward, dropping to $76,400. The reluctance of buyers has driven losses in altcoins beyond 5%, placing Ethereum at risk of losing its $2,000 level. Historical data provides insights into what crypto investors might expect moving forward.
Capitulation and Market Shifts
The October 10th collapse became a pivotal point for cryptocurrencies. It was marked by billion-dollar daily losses and the liquidation of $2.5 billion in a single day. The erasure of billions in long positions has drained liquidity, yet buyers appear weak and hesitant for short liquidations, indicating a market under pressure.
Swissblock highlights a shift in momentum, suggesting that investors may have conceded. The collapse introduced an extreme negative momentum, compounded by the failure of buyers’ attempts to enact leadership changes in the market for the first time.
Historically, momentum levels of +0.5 and -0.5 signify key structural changes. In mid-January, an attempt to initiate a bullish structural shift was countered by successful seller defenses, preserving a bearish outlook and reverting to extreme negative momentum.
The behavior of momentum at these turning points is crucial in determining strong structural changes in the medium to long term.
Ethereum’s Possible Drop
In 2025, Ethereum experienced a brief rally, but now faces the risk of losing the $2,000 mark. Even with Bitcoin being considered affordable, buyers were not attracted, causing a decline below $77,000. DaanCrypto notes that if Ethereum loses its long-standing range, prices might revert to pre-breakdown levels supported by BitMine and other ETH reserve companies.
Despite poor price movements in this cycle, DaanCrypto argues that levels are distinctly clear. The $2,100 to $2,800 range has been marked and well-maintained, highlighting its importance without unnecessary complexity.
Should Ethereum fall from this range, the next critical level would be $1,800 — the pre-major rally threshold led by Tom Lee/Bitmine.
As of writing, ETH was just $100 above this range’s bottom level, indicating a precarious position for the cryptocurrency.
