Following a significant collapse in the charts, Bitcoin has currently leveled off. Analyst James Bull forecasts a 78% probability for Bitcoin (BTC) to close the CME gap at the latest within three weeks. A further decline in BTC might cause greater losses in altcoins, extinguishing the CME hopes. Let’s explore updated forecasts by various analysts.
78% Probability for Bitcoin Price Forecast
Historically, CME price gaps tend to close within three weeks. While not guaranteed, a 78% chance is a substantial probability, and even amidst January’s significant sell-off, a bounce back is anticipated before a further drop. Generally, after steep declines, a brief increase occurs even if losses continue. This is why James Bull predicts that BTC’s price might reach better levels in the coming days.
“The time has come to close the CME gaps at $83,000 and $95,000. Seventy-eight percent of them close within three weeks. These act like magnets. How so? The end of the government’s shutdown, likely to occur next week, will provoke extreme volatility in altcoins. Many coins could witness a 20-fold increase from $20,000 to $4 million. Yes, most might fall to zero, but for one winner, twenty might fall to zero. (I’ve invested in crypto; this is not financial advice.)”
James, sharing the above chart, noted that in the last seven years, BTC has not experienced a downtrend exceeding four months (4+ red candles) and will likely end February at better levels than its current state. However, during the 2022 FTX collapse, BTC lost its previous ATH level as support, despite not losing it before. Hence, historical data can be misleading but often holds true.
Sell Your Altcoins, Analysts Warn
Miles Deutscher referenced the FTX collapse and the May 2022 LUNA event to illustrate the magnitude of last weekend’s decline. The FTX collapse resulted in 1.75 billion dollars of liquidation, while the LUNA/UST event saw 1.5 billion dollars. This latest crash exceeded 2.5 billion dollars, with billion-dollar liquidations occurring for days. Miles notes that following the 19 billion dollar liquidation on October 10, markets deteriorated, and crypto is experiencing its most exhausting period.
Ran Neuner boldly suggests that selling altcoins might be the best option. Typically, such extreme pessimism periods precede significant surges, albeit at extreme pessimism’s limits. He faces backlash if proven wrong, and people lose by following his advice.
“SELL YOUR ALTCOINS. HERE’S WHY. Altcoins seem ‘cheap’ due to a 70-90% value drop. But being cheap isn’t synonymous with being undervalued. Returning to data, less than 20% of the top 200 altcoins reached a new peak in the last complete cycle. Most couldn’t recover, gradually losing value against Bitcoin. Here’s an overview of this cycle. In 2017, there were thousands of tokens in cryptocurrencies. Now there are over 120 million tokens. Recovery is no longer the base scenario. Disappearance is the base scenario. Hence, the common phrase: ‘I’ll wait for it to come back.’ This is often said just before capital gets stuck for years. This cycle isn’t about holding more; it’s about holding less of what’s less important.”
